The Final Four

Now that the dust is starting to settle and we're moving on to the final stages of the Commissioner's Cup, fans have been gifted with box-office worthy, best-of-five match-ups, in Talk N Text-Air21 and Ginebra-Smart Gilas.

In the TNT-Air21 series, you'll have the Philippine Cup champions doing battle with a rejuvenated and driven Air21 squad led by who I believe is the best, scoring import of the lot and some grade A championship-caliber players. With Ginebra-SG, you'll have the crowd darlings going up against a young team that is slowly trying to build its own identity and is also winning over fans left and right with its style of play (which should be the case since they are the national team).

That being said (and since I'm on paid vacation leave), here's how I see the match-ups are going to play:


Air21 Express VS Talk N Text Tropang Texters

PG Wynne Arboleda VS Jimmy Alapag
Arboleda will play in spurts, with Air21 coach Bong Ramos opting for streak shooter Josh Urbiztondo (who kind of reminds you of Alapag-- whenever the "Mighty Mouse" brings the ball up and jacks/makes threes that is). Still, despite the age and new faces, Alapag will rise to the occasion and prove why he is still the best point guard in the PBA (hello L.A. Tenorio fans).

SG Dondon Hontiveros VS Ryan Reyes/ Jason Castro
I fear that Hontiveros, who has been on and off for Air21, will show flashes of age once faced with the rugged energizer bunny known as Ryan Reyes. If Reyes is injured (which he has been plenty of times this season), then Jason Castro is also a threat to just leave Hontiveros in the dust. Hontiveros' chief back-up, Reed Juntilla, is no Ronald Tubid either, so expect the SG position to play a pivotal role in this series.

SF Alpha Bangura VS Paul Harris
Alpha Bangura is a scoring machine the same way ex-PBA import Anthony Johnson is. I don't see TNT's Paul Harris stopping him, not when TNT coach Chot Reyes himself called his import out for being a lousy defender a few games back.

PF Danny Seigle VS Kelly Williams
The moment of truth. Is Seigle's metaphoric rise back to the upper echelon of PBA superstars due to the minutes he's getting and a newfound drive with Air21, or if has he simply taken advantage of mismatches (as he has done so in the past-- which isn't wrong since it's not his fault he's built bigger than his opponents, but definitely skewers fans' perception of how good a certain player is)? Somehow, I don't see Seigle being as dominant in this series, not with Kelly Williams around and reliable Harvey Carey coming in which may just end Seigle's recent masquerade as a power forward soon (refer to Udonis Haslem on Dirk Nowitzki circa NBA Finals 2006).

C Dorian Pena VS Ali Peek
This is going to be a good one. Pena, in my book, has been the most valuable piece in that SMB trade-- giving Air21 a rebounding presence who can also set some wide and nasty screens for its guards. Peek on the other hand, is still doing his thing, chipping in points and setting screens, never really meant as a star player but definitely a solid one coaches can count on. Off the bench, Pena has JayR Reyes who has shown flashes of being Kerby Raymundo 2.0 and for TNT, there's Ranidel de Ocampo (who would rather hoist a three pointer than dribble into the paint, back his man down and shoot jump hooks or dunks-- someone the Smart Gilas boys should not watch or pattern their games with).

Prediction: Air21 had one hell of a conference, yes, but Talk N Text will march on to the Finals. Plus, do people really root for Air21? You know this team/players is/are bound to be sold to the highest bidder at some point right? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if one of their four acquisitions is traded by next conference or two.

Ginebra San Miguel VS Smart Gilas Pilipinas

PG Mike Cortez/ VS Jayvee Casio/ Andy Barroca
This is going to be fun. A guy accused of selling out DLSU, and a guy who, after bleeding San Beda red in the juniors, played his heart out and made a name for himself as DLSU legend Ren Ren Ritualo's clutch clone. Right now, Cortez has the advantage in ball handling skills, but Casio will keep Cortez on his toes with his corner threes and fluid jumpers. Oh, and everything will fall apart for Ginebra once Barroca comes in. They simply don't have anyone quick enough to stay in front of the SG speedster.

SG Mark Caguioa/ Willie Miller VS Chris Tiu/ Charles Lutz

Here we go. Tiu didn't play the last time out, but I expect him to in this series. Just how good is Tiu? Well, why not have Mark Caguioa take a crack at him then. Tiu has carved a niche as a rebound-hungry two-guard with range,while Caguioa is back to being "The Spark" and peaking at the right time for the Kings. The only thing that can ruin it for Ginebra is if Caguioa loses his cool trying to outshine the young Gilas guards, OR if Willie Miller is asked to carry the offense (which we know he can, but have no guarantees of if he wants to win, or just play basketball on television).

SF Ronald Tubid VS Mac Baracael
Ronald Tubid VS Ronald Tubid 2.0 (minus the theatrics). Aside from the Caguioa-Tiu or Tubid-Tiu match-ups, this one will be my favorite for the few days. Both are winners, can play straight up defense (Tubid can, but then he has added flopping to his arsenal) and are legit scorers who can either make plays or get buckets within the offense.

PF Eric Menk/ Rudy Hatfield VS Aldrech Ramos/ Greg Slaughter
This is going to be brutal. Ramos is a promising  young talent who only needs to add more muscle and experience, while Menk and Hatfield are arguably the most skilled post-pair in the PBA who give new meaning to the words "Detroit Muscle." For SG to be succesful, they better pray that Ramos doesn't get killed out there, and that Slaughter or Ballesteros can take heavy hits-- which they'll experience from the best elbow-throwing tag team in the league.

C Nate Brumfield VS Marcus Douthit
Brumfield is a banger and a bruiser, Douthit is a skilled, big man who plays with more finesse than power. Normally I'd take the bruiser, but it should be noted that Douthit is six to seven inches taller than the Ginebra import which spells disaster. For Ginebra to win, Douthit needs to be taken out of the equation by having their guards attack the paint and go foul-baiting.

Prediction: Ginebra will win behind Mark Caguioa, Eric Menk and Ronald Tubid.