PBA PhilCup SF: Talk 'n' Text vs Petron

The Blur looks healthier today than
in the Gov Cup, will it be enough?

True to its "Clash of the Titans" peg, the Petron Blaze Boosters and the Talk 'n' Text Tropang Texters find themselves being paired in a Best of Seven affair albeit a series too early (for their and other matchmakers' liking) but is widely considered as THE Philippine Cup Finals (with all due respect to both Powerade and Rain or Shine who will enter the Finals as underdogs no matter what).

The Blazers, fueled by last Governor's Cup's title run, is riding the uncanny trio of do-it-all forward Arwind Santos, clutch shooting and crisp passing by point Alex Cabagnot and the all around hustle and "pick your spots" shooting of rookie Chris Lutz (who may be the runaway Rookie of the Year awardee at this point based on stats alone). Coach Ato Agustin continues to empower his players on the court, maybe not much from an X's and O's standpoint but whatever he's preaching-- the Blazers are listening.

For the Texters, who choose to belittle their assortment of injuries like the professionals that they are, it's all about Jayson Castro and how he controls the tempo for his team. They're no longer playing the same lockdown defense and running and gunning on offense as last year owing to the shortage of players, but this team keeps finding ways to win behind coach Chot Reyes' brilliant defensive schemes and rotations.

Here's this writer's take on the match-ups and how it might play out:

PG Alex Cabagnot vs Jayson Castro/ Jimmy Alapag

X-factor: Depensa (at gulang) ni Denok kontra TNT guards

Reigning PBA MVP no longer looks like the "Mighty Mouse" of old (we all go through that phase in life, it's called "aging") and he'll have a hard time staying in front of the now more offensively-polished Cabagnot. Castro needs to stay away from gambling for steals and just play at a more controlled pace defensively-- wouldn't be surprised if Reyes slides over to guard Cabagnot in a cross-match, but that would depend on RR's health. The true match-up will be Cabagnot-Castro, and whoever is able to dictate the tempo will ultimately be the key to the series.

SG Denok Miranda/ Joseph Yeo vs Ryan Reyes
The Santa Lucia backcourt will be at each other's nerves this series with Reyes at a disadvantage owing to his injury issues. While Miranda isn't much of an offensive threat, Yeo's slashing ways will force coach Chot to look for someone healthy to put on the floor (probably Fonacier). But if the extended break allows for Reyes' injuries to heal, then the Blazers' defense will be tested because the Texters' Castro-Reyes combo creates a whole world of problems (kick-out passes, hustling/ dogged defense and gritty plays on both ends).

SF Chris Lutz vs Larry Fonacier/ Jarred Dillinger
Substance over style. Lutz is the epitome of how a prototypical basketball shooting guard is- drives but never forces the issue, has great handles, plays honest defense, looks to pass but can knockdown shots and-- above all, gets to the line in bunches. On the other side, we're still waiting for Dillinger to enjoy a breakout and show his true game. We've seen flashes in where he'd score 20, rebound and dish out the ball, but never on a consistent basis. Forget defense. That's probably why coach Chot Reyes opts for a three-guard line-up of Castro, Alapag, Reyes instead of bringing in Dillinger (unless one of the three's hurt). Lutz doesn't need the ball to be effective, while Dillinger is only good when he has the ball and freedom to create.

PF Arwind Santos vs Kelly Williams/ Japeth Aguilar
Arwind Santos is the best damn basketball player in the Philippines today. End of story. Kelly Williams hasn't improved from his MVP days with Santa Lucia, still shoots like he's throwing shotputs and still dribbles the ball above his waist. If anything, I'd argue that Williams has regressed a bit, no longer a double double machine and not fighting as hard for rebounds. Aguilar is good, but not solid enough to even be in the discussion. Yes he'll have a highlight worthy slam or block in the series, but unless we see the "Good Japeth" for at least four games for the Texters, then get used to seeing him languishing in the bench during tight situations.

C Rob Reyes/ Danny Ildefonso vs Harvey Carey
Carey will fight despite being undersized, he'll scratch, claw and push. He'll make every little-skilled yet tenacious basketball player who watches and loves the game proud. But Reyes is starting to show flashes of his old PBL Toyota-Otis self ("Baby Eric Menk"). And Ildefonso, whenever he's on the floor and called upon to provide that steadying veteran leadership-- hell, even clutch pull up Js from 15 to 18 feet. This is where a Ranidel de Ocampo (didn't play in the last series) or Ali Peek could've come in handy for the Texters.

This is going to be a tight series, but I'm leaning towards Petron's better (and healthier) roster.