Does Alaska have enough?

Let's get physical!

The Alaska Aces are back!

News of the team's "death" was greatly exaggerated, and thanks to the ever competitive brain-thrust led by boss Wilfred Uytengsu the Aces are back in the quarterfinals where they are to face three-peat Philippine Cup championship seeking Talk 'n' Text Tropang Texters.

But do they really stand a chance? Most say that their sweep of the Meralco Bolts should be taken as a clear indication that they can wether the vaunted "dribble drive offense" used by the sister teams. Sol Mercado initiates and creates, Ronjay Buenafe and Sunday Salvacion look for the kick-out passes, Mac Cardona looks for seams and cracks to contribute and Cliff Hodge takes care of the hustle and energy. Over at TNT, there's Jayson Castro leading the charge with Ryan Reyes' unguardable corner pocket threes, Larry Fonacier's sniping from all over, Ranidel de Ocampo just waiting his turn and of course, ever-reliable Jimmy Alapag.


Yes, the Bolts and Texters have the same style. BUT, the Bolts only have one guy who could lead the offense the way they want it (when Cardona's number is called, they immediately become a more half court based team which doesn't play to their overall strengths). The Texters? They have Castro, Alapag, Jarred Dillinger and even Reyes who can all get to the rim and finish or kick the ball out to shooters. It's  almost like a tsunami that comes in waves and in a Best-of-Five series, how the Aces' hold up would be pivotal.

Here are the probable match-ups:

Jimmy Alapag/ Jayson Castro vs RJ Jazul/ JVee Casio
This will get ugly fast. Castro is bigger, stronger and faster than both Jazul and Casio. The Blur's defense is also somewhat under-rated, but with "slow" dribblers like Jazul and Casio, he's bound to have the time of his life poking and stealing the ball. Alapag's defense is shaky, but Jazul won't merit much of his attention. Casio's going to get his versus Alapag more than against Castro, but it won't be enough.

Adv. TNT

Ryan Reyes vs Cyrus Baguio

Baguio will have to be even more craftier versus arguably the best lockdown perimeter defender (complete with all the tricks of the trade) in the PBA. A nicer match-up would be between skinny guards Baguio and Fonacier, but TNT head coach Norman Black won't need that. He has Reyes to send over to Baguio-- an elite scorer who has a very well-documented history about not liking or being as aggressive versus physical defenders. There's no other way around it, if the Aces are to win this series, Baguio has to elevate his game even further.

Adv. Ala (but only by an inch, depending on how the refs call it. RR is foul prone as he is a great defender)

Larry Fonacier/ Jarred Dillinger vs Mac Baracael/ Tony de la Cruz/ Dondon Hontiveros

Fonacier has been playing like an Alpha Dog this conference over at TNT despite not playing the full 48 minutes. He has been the most consistent guy for Coach Black and doesn't mind either taking the lead or settling back. Problem is, TDLC and Hontiveros, All Star Veterans and great defenders at that, are either taller or bigger than he is. The Aces' veteran wings know how the game is played just like Fonacier so they won't fall for any of the TNT specialist's tricks or fall asleep on defense and let him just roam around freely. Dillinger and his aggressiveness will be a wildcard, the Aces don't have anyone to put on him if the Daredevil starts running all over the floor and creating (you could put Abueva on him, but that would make for a very short night for The Beast who doesn't get the benefit of calls from the referees). Mac Baracael plays only when he wants to, so we'll leave him out of the discussion for now.

Adv. Ala 

Ranidel de Ocampo/ Kelly Williams vs Calvin Abueva/ Gabby Espinas

The Beast and the man that was The Beast before The Beast (in the NCAA at least) are the Aces' new defensive backbone. They rebound, they hustle, they do all of the things that don't necessarily show up on the statline every single night. Fortunately for them, the Beast can also work wonders on offense. But at a paltry and skinny 6"1 masquerading as a power forward in the PBA? He's about to meet the league's creme de la creme in 6"7 Ranidel de Ocampo. All the gulang, all the pasimple and kiti-kiti moves on the court by The Beast has never really unnerved Mr. Wonderful, so has Espinas' athleticism. To RDO, they're just a pair of skinny, boyish forwards playing in a man's world. The problem with RDO is consistency, but given the competition and how hard the Aces' frontline will come at him, expect the many time National Player to start flexing his muscles inside and outside. Oh, and there's Kelly Williams too. Former MVP lang naman.

Adv. TNT

Ali Peek vs Sonny Thoss

Peek has more in his offensive repertoire than Thoss, there's a clear disparity in height, but fortunately for TNT Thoss isn't really a big time low post scorer. They have bruisers in Peek, Harvey Carey and even RDO to send over to Thoss whenever the Aces' big does get into any sort of rhythm. Quite frankly, we're putting our money on this series being decided via small ball with Espinas sliding over at center with RDO as his counterpart.

Adv. Tied

Okay, so one-on-one, the Aces have a slight advantage in their match-ups. But that doesn't guarantee a series victory over the Texters since this is the team's best defensive line-up we're talking about (other than San Mig Coffee). For the Aces to win, they need to play aggressive and keep pushing the basketball. The Triangle might not be the best play here, since it will fall right into the Texters' halfcourt defense. Look for Casio, Baguio and Abueva to go off early. That, plus Abueva needs to just keep his hands to himself in the first half to avoid foul trouble, they're not winning this series without him (or anyone else at that), "all hands on deck" ika nga.

For the Texters, it's more about controlling the tempo and just counter-punching ala Juan Manuel Marquez. Fortunately for them, the Aces' have no one to put on Castro (Abueva might be nice in fantasy land, but we can see The Blur crossing over The Beast ugly). RDO needs to wake up from his in-game slumbers and take control of this series. Dillinger could also be the biggest wildcard because of what he brings to the table at the SF position where the Aces are thinnest (not thinnest, but oldest with guys like Hontiveros, TDLC and Nic Belasco). Mac Baracael could be the answer there, but he's been on and off for the Aces so much we'd much rather have him on the bench.

Fearless forecast: Aces in 5. Texters in 6 or 7.