PBA 2012 Draft: More busts than stars?

Is "The Muscle" too small to dominate the PBA?

While this year's PBA Draft will go down in history as the Year of the Fajardo/Abueva (depending on which camp you happen to be cheering for), it should be noted that of the 39 players selected (in an eye-popping 6 round draft thanks to Barangay Ginebra San Miguel's binge shopping for point guards), only a handful are still in the league and about five to six of them to actually be relevant.

On top are Petron's Junemar Fajardo, the first overall pick, inconsistent but very mobile and impressive for a guy his size and Alaska's Calvin Abueva, a sure lock for the year's top Rookie prize given his impact on his team and how he is able to carry his "beastly" game over to the pros with relative ease (and how he's managed to get in the heads of a lot of veterans when it's supposed to be the other way around).

After those guys, it's really a toss up on who else is going to be a star or at the very least-- "useful" for his team in the long run.

Our picks are Rain or Shine's Chris Tiu, Meralco's Vic Manuel, Meralco's Cliff Hodge, Ginebra's Chris Ellis, GlobalPort's AJ Mandani and Jason Deutchman (if they are ever used correctly by the stubborn/ unimaginative Junel Baculi) and-- with all the minutes and dick-riding he's been getting despite looking very raw, San Mig Coffee's Alex Mallari.

We'd throw Ginebra's Keith Jensen and Yousef Taha into the mix, as well as Talk 'n' Text's Dave Marcelo but those guys are playing behind 2-3 guys on their teams so it's going to be tough for them unless they're sent elsewhere.

The rest? Back to the PBA D-League (or the ASEAN Basketball League where some guys could even become legit starters and stars).

There's a certain fire and fight needed from rookies to earn the trust of their coaches, and these guys all have it. Mallari's getting a lot of love from the San Miguel big wigs for some reason but from what we've seen so far, his new head coach- Tim Cone, is just a few Mallari botched plays and turnovers away from blowing his head right off.

He needs to work on his shooting, get stronger to stay in front of his man and be a lot tougher. We're not exactly sure if Coach Tim is the right guy to bring the best off Mallari (then again, the Hall of Fame tactician was able to make EJ Feihl look like a legit basketball player for a year or two). Honestly, Mallari would've been better off playing for Yeng Guiao (and be benched for a year to "toughen up" same way as Cyrus Baguio).

Hodge, Ellis and Jensen will have solid careers in the league given their size, speed and athleticism. The overall basketball skill isn't there yet as all three depend mostly on their athleticism, but we like how Hodge continues to work on his jumper (his shooting form is different from his PBADL days). Jensen just needs Rudy Hatfield and Willy Wilson to retire and he'll get the minutes for sure.

Serviceable bigs are a commodity in the PBA, and that's why Taha and Marcelo will have their day as well. If Rob Reyes can make a career our of looking like a basketball player without really averaging more than 4 points and 4 rebounds a game, then there's hope for the ferocious Taha and Marcelo (who is pretty much Doug Kramer II).

That leaves us with our new favorite, as we have recently converted to the Iglesia ni Chris Tiu cult, Chris Tiu.

This guy is opening a lot of eyes in the PBA. We've recounted how he's too slow to play point guard and small to really guard the elite shooting guards of the league but lo and behold, the guy's holding his own and doing well under Coach Guiao's helter-skelter, rugged style of basketball over at Rain or Shine.

When he's needed to play the point, Tiu almost always makes the correct plays and timely passes in the half court. When he's tasked to play SG, he helps spread the floor by looking for open spots for easy catch-and-shoots while also playing some of the fiercest, hand-to-hand combat defense this side of Ryan Arana (ask San Mig Coffee's PJ Simon).

Of the remaining names on the PBA Draft, we hope that some are able to claw their way back into the pros much like Simon did (drafted in the earlier part of the last decade by Santa Lucia in the late rounds, never played until he was taken in by Purefoods/ San Mig Coffee). We are high on point guard Jerrick Canada at the moment, but pint-sized point guards like him come almost every day unless he suddenly develops blitzkrieg handles (Johnny Abarrientos) or deadeye stepback three point range (L.A. Tenorio) then it's going to be pretty hard from here on out.

On a side note, there are too many "role players" coming out of the woodwork and not much "alpha scorers" save for Abueva-- but even "the Beast" started off as a super role-playing workhorse. Last guy who was truly a scorer was Barako's Allein Maliksi. Manuel is in that mold, but his size limits him from playing his superstar game in the pros.