PBA CC SF: 1 San Miguel vs 5 Rain or Shine

Grudge Match
(Photo credit: Spin.Ph)

In a grudge match of the PBA Philippine Cup Semifinals, San Miguel will need to overcome bullish Rain or Shine once again if they are looking to continue their Grand Slam bid. The only problem here is, they are facing a team that appears to have found a wide body, literally, to even out the playing field.

Oh, and that SMB's 2x PBA MVP Junemar Fajardo is coming off an injury (caused by RoS' Jireh Ibanes in that same Semis match-up mentioned above).

So here is what we know: RoS beat SMB in the eliminations thanks to then import Mo Charlo's 35 points and 13 rebounds debut. It was also a close 108-105 match, which could've easily been in favor of SMB had Fajardo been in the shape that he is in now (still not 100%, but definitely getting there).

In that match SMB's Tyler Wilkerson posted 33 and 10, Marcio Lassiter and Alex Cabagnot provided 18 a piece and Chris Ross had 12. On the flip side, it was JayR Quinahan with 15, Chris Tiu and Maverick Ahanmisi with 13 each and Jeff Chan with 12-- basically, typical RoS stats with just about everyone who saw action scoring a point or two.

So how does SMB beat RoS?



Taking advantage of Wilkerson's size, speed and scoring prowess, giving Lassiter all the shots he wants and just having Ross slow the RoS attack by himself.

If Fajardo's healthy, well, game over.

But he is not. Which gives RoS a glimmer of hope.

RoS changed its import, a 6"4 wingman in Charlo, with a beefy 6"8 Niles specifically for the Playoffs. It proved to be the wise decision despite Niles' unimpressive 12 points and 10 rebounds average statline, since the former Memphis Tiger was able to more than hold his own against Ginebra's towering combo of Japeth Aguilar and Greg Slaughter. He wasn't putting up the numbers, but he was definitely felt every time he was on the floor.

Versus SMB, he'll be tasked to cover Fajardo. They can't risk putting him on a speedy athlete like Wilkerson, who we can expect will post about 30 points per night versus RoS. If they do, either Niles runs out of gas or he ends up in foul trouble early.

Versus Fajardo, sure, the PBA MVP has shown that even when he's hurt he can still score (he definitely owned Star's Rodolfo Ratliffe in the 1st round of the Playoffs), but it will take a lot out of him to try and move Niles from the paint. Which will ultimately reduce him to what Slaughter was in the Ginebra series-- a jumpshooter trying to draw the big bear out so the rest of his guys can work inside.

If Fajardo moves outside, Wilkerson will be forced to move inside. Where he's a bit more manageable because he won't be able to build momentum moving forward/ attacking. He'll need to bang a bit more, and RoS has the guys, even if they are shorter, who are all willing to bang and play.

As for the guards, RoS and SMB both have the goods to make it interesting. Ronald Tubid and Ryan Arana are just as solid (and even more proven) as Ahanmisi and Cruz, though Don Trollano might be a factor if he hits his shots early. Plus there is that dude named Gary David in there so...

Match-up wise

PG Chris Ross/ Alex Cabagnot vs Maverick Ahanmisi/ Chris Tiu
Ross vs Tiu is the real battle here. We don't know why Tiu hates Ross. Sure as hell plays like it. Unfortunately, Cabagnot will light them all up at some point. Paul Lee who? Papayat ka muna, idol.
Adv. SMB

SG Marcio Lassiter vs Jeff Chan/ Jericho Cruz
This will be a cross match for sure, Coach Yeng Guiao needs to decide if he'll hide Chan somewhere and have either Norwood or Jireh Ibanes on Lassiter. If he puts Chan on Lassiter, we fear that the Negros Sniper will be dead tired by the 3rd quarter. Lassiter? He looks fit as f. Big shots galore from both. Cruz might be an X factor.
Adv. Tied

SF Arwind Santos vs Gabe Norwood
Don't expect them to guard each other. Will bring the same things to the table. Do you slide Santos at the 4 with Wilkerson at 5 and go quick? Do you put Norwood on Lassiter or Wilkerson?
Adv. Tied

PF Tyler Wilkerson vs JayR Quinahan
Quinahan has been balling out of his mind lately. But Wilkerson will beast him. If it is versus Santos, he'll get checked. If SMB dusts off Gabby Espinas, same banana. Beau Belga needs to show up. Raymond Almazan needs to show up. Jewel Ponferada might get a lot of minutes in this series.
Adv. SMB

C Junemar Fajardo vs Pierre Henderson Niles 
If Fajardo finished with a 10 point 5 rebound statline at the end of the night, then Niles has done his job. Bonus if he can get his usual 12 and 10. Still, a bit worried that SMB might be playing with us and are just keeping Fajardo well-rested for the Finals. Adv. SMB

Honestly feel that SMB will power through, be it via an unstoppable Wilkerson, Fajardo resurgence or Chris Ross just toying  with the RoS offense with his defense.

Wouldn't it be fun though, if RoS sticks Ibanes on Ross?

Prediction: SMB