PBA CC Finals: 3 Alaska vs 5 Rain or Shine

#IndieWars
(Photo: GMAnews.tv)

If the PBA were the WWE, then this match-up would be the equivalent of when Daniel Bryan finally FINALLY (and we think that's the only time they really went at it for a title) squared off with CM Punk for the heavyweight title in Over The Limit 2012. They are the Internet, Indie-darlings; the ones that "couldn’t really fill up a room;" the ones that only purists would truly love and appreciate for who they are and what they do in the ring.

Ladies and gentlemen the PBA gives to you, the Alaska Aces versus the Rain or Shine Elastopainters.

Finally, a PBA Finals that (hopefully) spares us from charges of game-fixing, ref-magic and the league being “scripted.” Both teams are widely recognized as almost impartial, having no affiliation with either the San Miguel (San Miguel, Ginebra, Star) or MVP (TNT, Meralco, NLEX) blocs. They also have little to no weight, when it comes to referees allegedly calling games in their favor. Hell, these two teams are the ones who usually find themselves on the receiving side of the shorter end of the stick if you will, so there.

No drama, just basketball.

But if you even think for a second that this series is not going to be entertaining, well, that only exposes your knowledge of the league in general.

In their lone Eliminations face-off; Alaska won 128-102 thanks to then import Shane Edwards (37m/23p/11r/2a), Calvin Abueva (23/25/8/2), Vic Manuel (23/20/2/1) and Chris Banchero (23/14/6/6). RoS on the other hand relied mostly on the exploits of, also then import, Antoine Wright (38/21/11/3), Chris Tiu (30/21/7/2) and Jericho Cruz (27/16/2/1).

So yeah, you can throw those stats, and that game, out the window.

Edwards and Wright are no longer here, Manuel is hurt indefinitely and as you can tell by the leading scorers in that game for RoS, their “Gilastopainters” Jeffrei Chan, Paul Lee, Gabe Norwood, Beau Belga and even the much-improved and current team leading scorer JayR Quinahan were eerily silent. Of the five, only Norwood played more than 16 minutes (20).

We doubt that they can afford to sit those core guys down for this series.

PG Chris Banchero/ RJ Jazul vs Maverick Ahanmisi/ Chris Tiu
Stalemate. Banchero and Ahanmisi are practically the same player. Average shooters, can run offenses, plays sturdy defense, relentless… mas mainstream TV friendly packaging lang yung kaha ni Banchero.  If Jazul can knock down his threes, it will be big for the Aces since it will help open up the middle. Banchero’s been knocking down some shots too (MAX CONTRAAAAAACCCCTTT) so he is a threat. Things will change of course once that other guy opts to slide down and play some PG, you know...
Adv. Tied

SG Cyrus Baguio/ Ping Exciminiano vs Jeff Chan/ Paul Lee
This guy. Paul Lee. Baguio is an under-rated defender and former Guiao apostle. So you know he’ll hustle and try to use his length and speed to pester Lee. But Lee is stronger and, unfortunately for Exciminiano, veteran-savvy. Just knows how to use his body to gain any advantage- big or small. If he is rounding back into shape, like how he closed out the San Miguel series, the Aces will have to keep this guy in check at all times. And Chan? He could shoot 0/9 the whole game and make that 1 clutch basket—jumpshot, three ball or a nakaw Scottie Pippen one like he did on Arwind Santos, to win it.
Adv. RoS

SF Calvin Abueva vs Gabe Norwood/ Jericho Cruz
Norwood will bring it. We don’t know exactly what, but he always brings it. He will challenge Abueva out in the perimeter. But even if he’s a few cm taller than Abueva, he will get obliterated inside the paint. But here’s the fun part: RoS has a bunch of guys who are more than willing to go toe to toe with Abueva, should Norwood not suffice, starting with trusted captain Jireh Ibanes. Skirmishes? Dirty tricks? Holding? Hacking? Ibanes on Abueva is going to be huge. Also, that kid Jericho Cruz if left unchecked by Abueva can light it up. Big time. Aces’ can’t afford to play an old Tony Dela Cruz on this one, not sure he is strong enough to keep up with Guiao’s new sparkplug.
Adv. AA… but only by a slim margin

PF Sonny Thoss/ Eric Menk vs JayR Quinahan/ Jewel Ponferada/ Raymond Almazan
Thoss will get his buckets. Definitely. But so will Quinahan. And in the stretches wherein Thoss looks every bit his age and mileage, alongside backup Menk, RoS’ bigs will just keep interchanging: scoring, rebounding, hustling. We have seen enough of Noy Baclao to put our money on Ponferada, should they be matched.
Adv. RoS

C Rob Dozier, Jr. vs Pierre Henderson Niles/ Beau Belga
Dozier is the key here. Niles will get his now customary 12 points and 10 rebounds, so Dozier simply needs to double those numbers and put the burly RoS enforcer in foul trouble to help open up the paint. A lot of what Niles does on the floor goes unnoticed, so please allow us to point it out to you: he is an excellent floor spacer. When Niles plants himself somewhere, guys simply spread out around him. Because he usually just goes to his spot on the left bank side, for an easy catch, spin, finish. That is his move. If he is outside, he just sets wide screens. WIDE. He doesn’t force the issue and just knows how to keep the ball moving from one side to the other. Dozier will score on him, but Niles’ presence alone makes the other 4 guys for RoS much better. Basically, this is about the same as how Junemar Fajardo did vs Niles. The big man will look like a fool, but at day’s end he’ll somehow help his team to a win.
Adv. AA

There you have it. A lot of the match-ups actually favor RoS, specially with the guards. The best way for the Aces to keep this series in their favor is to control tempo. Control it by crashing the boards and milking the clock. Play it like how they did versus the Meralco Bolts: ugly, slow, boring basketball. Grind it out. See who has more left in the tank in the end. Coach Alex Compton and his staff will definitely put their thinking caps on this one, maybe bust out a complex zone here and there, or a box one with the one staying home on Lee/ Chan.

For RoS, it all starts and ends with guarding Abueva and who can outwit who. Abueva will definitely try to start something at some point, can Beau Belga behave enough to not cost his team a game or two? Can Norwood do to Abueva what he did to Ginebra’s Othyus Jeffers (which we think he can)? The problem with RoS has always been the scoring droughts whenever Lee and Chan would sit. Well, that’s not much of a problem these days with Cruz and the steady Ahanmisi coming in (or starting). It’s almost like the RoS team just comes at you wave after wave after wave. Lee, Chan, Quinahan and Belga to start, then comes in Ahanmisi, Cruz and Ponferada to hit some baskets to either keep them in the game or stretch the lead. What RoS needs to stay away from is playing hero-ball/ ball-watching. They have done it in the past, so they are always susceptible to this fault which the Aces could/ should exploit.

Hell, maybe the Aces could devise a scheme wherein Lee/ Chan scores 30-40, but then everyone else is blah. Much like how they tried to handle 2x PBA MVP Junemar Fajardo not so long ago.

Vic Manuel would’ve been big in this series. Just the card that the Aces have been dealt with, we suppose.

And you know what's nice about this series, whichever team wins?

Walang magsasabi ng "dinaya kami!" or "luto!" kasi parehas lang walang pambayad yung dalawang teams. Max contracts nga hirap magbigay sa sariling player, magbayad pa ng refs?

X-factor: Hontiveros/ Menk for Alaska, Cruz/ Ibanes for RoS

Prediction: RoS