PBA Bubble SF: Phoenix (2) VS TNT (3)

To win, The Beast
needs to be Unleashed
(Photo by: Inquirer Sports)

This one’s got a lot of history
.

Although, we expect everyone to say all of the right things if only to move on from that incident. You know: the Calvin Abueva vs Terrence Jones skirmish that turned into a dance-off? Oh, and the  Abueva vs Bobby Ray Parks, Jr.’s GF mouth-off?

Both incidents of course helped lead to the lengthy suspension of Phoenix’ mercurial star forward Abueva. To his credit, ‘The Beast’ has been on his bests behavior while in the bubble, even if some players are starting to get physical with him (shout-out to Magnolia’s Jackson Corpuz).

So yes, there is bad blood there. Abueva was even quoted about how he apologized to Parks during a chance encounter inside the bubble— an episode that was flatly brushed off by Parks. Just keep an eye on those two. Parks will most likely not engage Abueva, but we’re willing to bet the farm that come Game 3,4 or 5, these two will be reacquainted soon enough. 

So here’s what we know, by the numbers.

Phoenix is shooting 35% from deep (thank you Matthew Wright) to TNT’s 29% (they just keep shooting 3s or die trying). They are also moving the basketball at a very efficient rate, with 25 assists per game (versus 17 tournovers) thanks in large part to Abueva (7 per game) and Wright (6). Big man Justin Chua is also making a good name for himself, leading the league in blocks per game with 2.

So where does TNT have the advantage? 

Rebounding, but not by a lot to go on. Again, these are just averages based on the stats on PBA.ph. From what we’ve learned in xx years of watching basketball, you basically throw most of this nerd talk out of the window once you are in the playoffs.

Let’s talk match-ups then, shall we?

PG RJ Jazul v Jayson Castro

You already know. What Phoenix needs to do, is to put different guys on Castro just to throw him off (unlikely). If the other Phoenix PGs (Heruela/ Garcia— both Castro backup discards) can help out by scoring some, that might help slow the older Castro down somewhat.

Adv. TNT

SG Matthew Wright v RR Pogoy

Wright has been ballin’ in the bubble. Pogoy’s not that far off, but Wright’s been doing it since day one at a very high and consistent level. He’s been so good in fact, that his own team decided to use him off the bench in their Playoffs match with Magnolia. Which didn’t slow him down at all. Sure, Pogoy’s going to bring it, and score some, but TNT will need him more for his defense in this one. He has the defensive hustle and ‘gulang’ to be physical with Wright and hopefully throw him off his game, but Phoenix will most likely keep going to their established star no matter what. For Phoenix, they need to send a few screens Wright’s way so he doesn’t stand still and become an easy defensive assignment.

Adv. TNT

SF Calvin Abueva v Bobby Ray Parks, Jr.

Oh this one has been years in the making. Unfortunately, while we were treated to the brutal brilliance of Abueva in the PBA straight from his NCAA days, Parks, Jr. went the international route to chase his NBA dream. Now, we get to see the dream match on a bigger stage, with higher stakes (hopefully the start of something bigger). Parks, Jr. is, as we love calling him on Twitter, ‘The Natural.’ Every single move in the basketball textbook— he has the lefty version of it. Abueva, well, he’s the agent of chaos. Skilled, but erratic. His flaws are mostly hidden or lessened by his hustle and heart. These two are fire and ice. Naruto and Sasuke. Natural born enemies (hopefully this stays on the floor). Of the two, Phoenix probably needs Abueva more than TNT needs Parks. Not to say that Parks isn’t important, because he definitely is a vital cog, but given the limited talent on the Phoenix bench, Abueva needs to literally fill up the stat sheet for them to be competitive, while Parks can pick his spots and play off of Castro and Pogoy at times. (Whew! This entry might need a whole separate piece.)

Adv. TNT (but only because, and here’s the kicker that people overlook: Ryan Reyes has no problems locking up Abueva. Check the tapes.)

PF Jason Perkins v Troy Rosario

A hefty lefty (see what I did there) who can post up, shoot 3s, rebound, and box out versus a tall, athletic guy who can rebound and shoot 3s. Rosario’s been in a funk this conference, but mostly because his talent is often negated by his front court partner who basically plays the same style as he does. This is an acid test for Perkins, and imho Phoenix will go only as far as Perkins, the team’s 3rd star, can take them (if it’s just Wright and Abueva, Phoenix isn’t going to win).

Adv. Phoenix

C Justin Chua v Poy Erram

The Clash of the Ateneans. On one side is the much-heralded recruit while the other, is mostly utilized as a back-up. It’s funny how their PBA careers turned out: both semi journeymen who have bounced around here and there. For Erram, everyone talks of how good he is, and how great he could be. For Chua, it’s been a quiet, consistent, rise to the upper echelon of big men with his improved touch, rebounding and shotblocking abilities. For Phoenix, they need to control the boards and make sure Chua doesn’t get in foul trouble (Castro’s going to drive and hunt him for sure). For TNT, it’s all about Erram pulling Chua out of the paint.

Adv. Tied

Bench adv.: TNT

TNT is the deeper team, with Simon Enciso, Ryan Reyes, Jay Washington and a Semerad ready and consistent contributors— they can’t really score much, but those guy play defense like wolves. On the flip side, Phoenix runs a very short rotation which might not favor them vs a fast paced team like TNT. 

X-factor: Castro

He’s been playing off the bench, not scoring as much, but that’s simply because there’s not much need to. Not with Pogoy and Parks taking turns carving up defenses. Simply put, of all the matchups on the floor, there’s no one who can stay in front of The Blur. Even if he’s a bit older/ slower now. Slow for Castro is fast for everyone else imho. You'd usually reserve the 'X-factor' for someone coming off the bench and well... hey... Castro's coming off the bench these days.

Prediction: TNT

Too good, too deep, too skilled. I’m rooting for Phoenix in this one, but the TNT Gilas 5 is going to spell the difference.

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