PBA Governor's Cup Finals: TNT vs Ginebra

Photo: GMA Network

It was just a matter of time.

With the mighty San Miguel Beermen going through a transition phase with a new head coach and ever-changing roster, Barangay Ginebra has slowly established itself as the San Miguel Corporation's top PBA team under the Tim Cone era. I can't remember the last time Ginebra did not win at least a championship (or made a deep playoff push) under Cone, and now, it truly looks like they have the right roster to cement a new Dynasty in the PBA.

On the other side of the fence, the MVP group's crown jewel has always been the TNT Tropang Giga. They've fallen off the grid for a while, looking for a new coach to succeed Chot Reyes (the dark Bong Ravena years), and it appears that they've found just the man in Jojo Lastimosa. Of course, at his disposal still lies Reyes and his son Josh, and probably the biggest asset of them all, Serbian tactician Lale Guronovic. Together, they have righted the TNT ship, and we have seen a more well-balanced roster that even uses traditional, heavy bigs (which has only sometimes been the case with Reyes' old TNT squads).

On Sunday, we will see if Ginebra's new Dynasty can keep the up-and-coming TNT at bay. For now, let's play around with the match-ups and see who has the advantage going into the Finals.

PG

Paul Varilla/ Kib Montalbo/ Jayson Castro vs Scottie Thompson 

This is going to be a tough match-up for TNT, as they'll need to always keep an eye out on Thompson who does a lot of damage by hustling for the basketball and grabbing offensive rebounds. Sure, Castro is still Castro, but he's no longer the Blur of old who can play 35-40 minutes a game at a high rate. It's up to Varilla and Montalbo to try and rough up Thompson a bit and prevent him from getting inside.

SG

RR Pogoy vs Jeremiah Gray

Pogoy has been on a tear as of late, and while Gray has been quite impressive, I'm picking the University of Cebu alum to continue leading the charge for TNT. This is going to be a great test for Gray (and Malonzo) if they can limit Pogoy and survive his "Pinoy gulang" style of play. I expect Pogoy to be a little more physical in this series vs the Ginebra wings... oh, and if Gray doesn't really pan out... Ginebra can dust off Stanley Pringle and just have him iso.

SF

Mikey Williams/ Calvin Oftana vs Jamie Malonzo / Nards Pinto

When motivated or engaged, Williams is on another level. He can shoot, he can get to the rim, he can do just about anything he wants on the floor. We'll see if Malonzo can be disciplined enough to not try to do too much when guarding Williams. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Coach Tim calls on Nards Pinto, the rough Wynne Arboleda clone, to get under Mikey's skin a bit. Still, should be a fun match-up. Williams will definitely shoot, up to Malonzo to counterattack him as well.

PF

Rondae Hollis Jefferson vs Justin Brownlee

They'll cancel each other out for sure. RHJ is good. Brownlee is all around. The biggest key here is, RHJ needs to do a lot of heavy lifting for TNT, while Brownlee can always just pull back whenever the locals are having a great game, and take over when needed.

C

Poy Erram v Christian Standhardinger 

Sorry Poy, but you're coming off an injury. And you still look the same, muscle-wise. CSH has been cooking. So... BBQ chicken.

X Factor: Japeth Aguilar

There were talks of Aguilar making his return in the finals, and if he does, well, even if he's a bit out of rhythm or not in sync with the rest, that means he'll either play alongside CSH or sub for him. Which means, well, not a great sign for TNT. If Japeth plays as CSH's backup, he's matched up against the smaller/ slower Justin Chua and Dave Marcelo. If they keep Poy on him, he'll score over Poy. If they play together, then that means Brownlee can slide down to 3. Just a huge game changer if the 6"9 big man plays in this series for sure. 

All things considered, I'm picking Ginebra. The Dynasty is on the rise, they have a nice young core to go with Standhardinger who is playing great basketball this conference. Honestly, would be surprised if CSH doesn't end up winning Best Player of the Conference AND Finals MVP.

Who's your pick to win the Governor's Cup title?