PBA GovCup Finals: Ginebra v Meralco

Act III
(Photo credit: ABS CBN Sports)

Our apologies for being a game late with our preview, though we are admittedly not as bothered because somehow, someway, this "trilogy" between the Meralco Bolts and their continued tormentors, the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel feels as though it will go the distance.

Call it a gut feel.

Fine, for those who have been following our blog and Twitter accounts, we're currently at an abysmal 2 and 4 with our predictions. But hey, like the band Journey: "don't stop. Believing."

Hold on to that feeling.

*apir kung kinanta mo din*

Much has changed since these two teams first met in the PBA Finals. Meralco made sure to check all the boxes and dot all their i's by adding gunner Allein Maliksi, rim protector Raymond Almazan and bruiser Raymar Jose. There were a lot of times in the first two encounters wherein they really felt the absence of a perimeter gunner (Chris Newsome was all by his lonesome), a reliable big who is agile enough to keep in step with Ginebra's towering giants Japeth Aguilar and Greg Slaughter, and a young enforcer to help spell their throng of veteran power forwards.


Because really, Meralco has a knack for bringing in 35+ year old power forwards into the fold no? Reynel Hugnatan's still there. Ranidel de Ocampo came in. Just a bunch of old stars, and when they do get young blood, it's mostly the bit players that other teams discarded.

So really, it was their hulking import Allen Durham, Newsome, and backup guard Anjo Caram. Yes. No Baser Amer. He was flat out getting cooked by L.A. Tenorio out there. And if Game 1 of this Finals series has shown, Amer still can't guard Tenorio to save his life. And we're talking about an OLD Tenorio here, not the ultra quick Ateneo/ Harbour Center/ Alaska one.

Hopefully, the additions pan out. They have a great young forward in Bong Quinto, who had a terrible Game 1 but will most likely bounce back for the rest of the series.

On the other side of the fence, Ginebra's peaking at the right time. They started the conference a bit slow only to finish 3rd after the eliminations. Once in, they dismantled the distracted San Miguel Beermen before ending Northport's Cinderella story in the semis. All that despite going through some injuries here and there to their rotation guys, still having to incorporate Stanley Pringle into the mix and achieving a balance between him and super import Justin Brownlee.

Seriously, is there anything that Brownlee cannot do? Because by now, three or four years into his PBA career, he's obviously the measuring stick when it comes to imports right?

Brownlee as the do-it-all, high scoring, perimeter oriented barometer, Durham being the low post one.

Here are the match-ups:

LA Tenorio vs Baser Amer/ Anjo Caram
Here's the thing, Amer is Meralco's lead guy. They go where he goes. Unfortunately, he simply cannot stay in front of Tenorio. Which is odd considering his youth. He's just outgunned, outsmarted, outwitted at every turn. Caram makes up for it with his energy. Maybe the bigger Nard Pinto should be sent to check Tenorio and rough the vet up a bit. I mean, if they really want to win and all.

Stanley Pringle/ Scottie Thompson vs Chris Newsome
Sucks to be Newsome. This is his breakout party-- 3rd time's the charm right? He was great the first time around, he was good the last time... now he's stuck trying to keep in step with Pringle. Who is pretty much the best guard out there today. Bar none. And if that wasn't enough, there's the energetic Thompson, who is really Ginebra's X-factor as he is their primary 2nd ball-mover after Tenorio or Brownlee. The gaps in Ginebra's offense, when the ball needs to move from one side to the other, that's where Thompson comes in with the hockey assists. Low key, but disruptive if you're trying to stop Ginebra. And he rebounds like a mofo too.

Justin Brownlee vs Bong Quinto/ Allein Maliksi
I don't get the Magic Brownlee tag. Just call him Ginebra's Michael Jordan. Maliksi's practically useless when his shooting is off target.

Japeth Aguilar vs Raymond Almazan
Yay for Meralco, they got a rim protector who can spread the floor. But Aguilar's been on a different level since Coach Tim Cone arrived at Ginebra. Sure, he still bites on fakes, but he appears to be a bit tougher. Less erratic. More confident in attacking the rim (and simply jamming it in). Also, Japeth seems to play with more aggression whenever he faces off against Almazan. Even when Rakenrol was still with RoS.

Joe DeVance/ Greg Slaughter vs Allen Durham

That's about as one-sided of an affair as you can get. Which is tough on paper, but execution-wise, Meralco is running their sets more fluidly than Ginebra. Ginebra's players gets away with a lot because of their superb 1-on-1 talent, but you can see during their dry spells that they do have instances wherein they just don't know what set to run or who to go to. Well, save for iso-Brownlee or iso-Pringle.

But that's just us nitpicking really.

BUT, if you're Meralco, they were pretty much in control of Game 1 up until the 4th quarter when their starters obviously started to tire out as opposed to Ginebra who kept putting in fresh legs-- specially on Durham (DeVance and Slaughter kept taking turns in guarding him down low). So that's one, Meralco simply can't afford to have their key guys playing 33 minutes and up. Not when the name of the game is to try and stop Ginebra from busting open the gates.

X-factor: Joe DeVance, his high IQ and big bum on defense for Ginebra; Bong Quinto for Meralco

Prediction: Ginebra.

PBA GovCup SF: Meralco vs TNT

McDaniels vs Durham
(Photo credit: Hoops PH)

Get ready for a slobberknocker of a Best-of-Five series between sister teams Meralco Bolts and the TNT Katropa.

Vastly improved, the Bolts finished the conference as the 2nd seed and easily disposed of the resurgent Alaska Aces behind the prowess of super-import Allen Durham and new recruits Allein Maliksi and Raymond Almazan. From where we are watching the games, it feels as though head coach Norman Black was able to address his team's weaknesses from previous conferences-- a need for a low post presence (this has been Durham's role from day one), a trusted scorer/ shot creator (Maliksi, who is absolutely the farthest thing from being gun-shy) and a rim protector (Almazan).

Sure, old hands Baser Amer and Chris Newsome are still delivering every now and then, but the addition of the above players makes the Bolts even more dangerous and well-rounded, similar to Black's previous champion teams. They're not really that exciting to watch, but they just keep wearing teams down be it a high-scoring affair or a grit-and-grind match.

It's going to be exciting when they finally lock horns with TNT, which beat them earlier this conference in a high-scoring affair (Durham finished with 43 while KJ McDaniels had 51).

For one, while the Bolts are the higher seed, the smart bet would be on TNT and their deep, superstar line-up. First, there's the returning Jayson Castro who has been playing like the FIBA Castro of old before suffering an injury mid-conference. In the Magnolia match-up, Castro outplayed a gauntlet of Grade A guards: Paul Lee, Mark Barroca and Jio Jalalon to steer TNT to a hard-fought victory.

Then you have McDaniels, who can do just about everything you'd want from an import who's asked to make plays and knock down shots. He also averages about 3 to 4 blocks per game so to say that he's more offensive than defensive minded would be a mistake. These two are followed by national players RR Pogoy (who is unfortunately hurt), Troy Rosario, Kelly Williams and Ryan Reyes.

Then there's the new addition: Ray Ray Parks.

In the off-season, rumors had it that Parks was supposedly on his way to the Bolts to join his godfather Black. Unfortunately, that didn't pan out and he went to TNT (a move that was probably hastened by the mid-conference injury to Castro).

With TNT, we've seen glimpses, and it's quite obvious that Parks will be playing a major role in this series as a definite x-factor.

So, match-up wise, we're looking at both team's best 5 guys and how we expect it to go:

Castro VS Amer
For some reason, Amer almost, always plays well vs TNT. Perhaps it's by design, with Black wanting his trusted PG to attack Castro more in hopes of forcing him to play defense. But honestly, the way Castro has been playing this conference, we don't see Amer stopping Castro any time soon. Maybe get the pesky Caram in just to give Castro different looks. Or even Nard Pinto to rough the FIBA star up.

DiGregorio VS Newsome
Newsome has been steady for the Bolts as a role playing scorer. He's shown flashes of being "the Man," but from what we've gathered he's better off as someone who puts up points and does a little bit of everything through the whole game. More Pippen than Jordan. TNT will need MDG to wax hot from the outside to help space the floor a bit for Castro to operate. The real fun begins when old TNT hand Ryan Reyes gets his turn in, locks up Newsome, and knocks down corner threes. Then, the Bolts will have a big problem.

Parks VS Maliksi
Maliksi is not going to back down from Parks, that's obvious enough. He'll go at him for sure. And it does look like he's already gotten the green light from Black as well. Bong Quinto is another option here, but the onus will be on Maliksi to knock down shots from deep to open things up for Durham inside the paint and maybe mix it up from the outside. The problem here of course, is should (or when) Maliksi get the green light, he tends to lose control and jack up shots like there's no tomorrow. For Parks, with Castro and McDaniels taking care of the scoring, he'll be asked to contribute the way Pogoy does (knock down open shots, take over the offense when Castro isn't clicking, and play defense).

McDaniels VS Almazan
Almazan has been Alma-zing for the Bolts as their rim protector and weak side big man. This is going to be a rough and tough affair where we expect everyone from Almazan to Faundo to Hodge to take a crack at TNT's high-scoring import who plays the 4 position on paper, but is really a 3 by game.

Rosario VS Durham
Who is going to stop Durham? Will TNT let Durham get his, like they did in their October 12 match-up, or will they double him and force the Bolts' other guys to salvage the win? For TNT, we're not sure Taha can handle Durham in the paint one-on-one. So the best plan is to really pull the Bolts' big man outside with stretch 4s and 5s.

The Bolts' team will need to overcome TNT's starpower from the onset. Honestly, we feel that they need to force the issue a bit more and be the aggressor, they have the 'rough' players for it, nothing dirty like NLEX, just a bit more physical. If this turns into a high-scoring affair, TNT will win 9 times out of 10. But should the Bolts be able to secure the boards and max out each possession, they'll be able to steal a few games.

Still, TNT to advance.

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