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| Act III (Photo credit: ABS CBN Sports) |
Call it a gut feel.
Fine, for those who have been following our blog and Twitter accounts, we're currently at an abysmal 2 and 4 with our predictions. But hey, like the band Journey: "don't stop. Believing."
Hold on to that feeling.
*apir kung kinanta mo din*
Much has changed since these two teams first met in the PBA Finals. Meralco made sure to check all the boxes and dot all their i's by adding gunner Allein Maliksi, rim protector Raymond Almazan and bruiser Raymar Jose. There were a lot of times in the first two encounters wherein they really felt the absence of a perimeter gunner (Chris Newsome was all by his lonesome), a reliable big who is agile enough to keep in step with Ginebra's towering giants Japeth Aguilar and Greg Slaughter, and a young enforcer to help spell their throng of veteran power forwards.
Because really, Meralco has a knack for bringing in 35+ year old power forwards into the fold no? Reynel Hugnatan's still there. Ranidel de Ocampo came in. Just a bunch of old stars, and when they do get young blood, it's mostly the bit players that other teams discarded.
So really, it was their hulking import Allen Durham, Newsome, and backup guard Anjo Caram. Yes. No Baser Amer. He was flat out getting cooked by L.A. Tenorio out there. And if Game 1 of this Finals series has shown, Amer still can't guard Tenorio to save his life. And we're talking about an OLD Tenorio here, not the ultra quick Ateneo/ Harbour Center/ Alaska one.
Hopefully, the additions pan out. They have a great young forward in Bong Quinto, who had a terrible Game 1 but will most likely bounce back for the rest of the series.
On the other side of the fence, Ginebra's peaking at the right time. They started the conference a bit slow only to finish 3rd after the eliminations. Once in, they dismantled the distracted San Miguel Beermen before ending Northport's Cinderella story in the semis. All that despite going through some injuries here and there to their rotation guys, still having to incorporate Stanley Pringle into the mix and achieving a balance between him and super import Justin Brownlee.
Seriously, is there anything that Brownlee cannot do? Because by now, three or four years into his PBA career, he's obviously the measuring stick when it comes to imports right?
Brownlee as the do-it-all, high scoring, perimeter oriented barometer, Durham being the low post one.
Here are the match-ups:
LA Tenorio vs Baser Amer/ Anjo Caram
Here's the thing, Amer is Meralco's lead guy. They go where he goes. Unfortunately, he simply cannot stay in front of Tenorio. Which is odd considering his youth. He's just outgunned, outsmarted, outwitted at every turn. Caram makes up for it with his energy. Maybe the bigger Nard Pinto should be sent to check Tenorio and rough the vet up a bit. I mean, if they really want to win and all.
Stanley Pringle/ Scottie Thompson vs Chris Newsome
Sucks to be Newsome. This is his breakout party-- 3rd time's the charm right? He was great the first time around, he was good the last time... now he's stuck trying to keep in step with Pringle. Who is pretty much the best guard out there today. Bar none. And if that wasn't enough, there's the energetic Thompson, who is really Ginebra's X-factor as he is their primary 2nd ball-mover after Tenorio or Brownlee. The gaps in Ginebra's offense, when the ball needs to move from one side to the other, that's where Thompson comes in with the hockey assists. Low key, but disruptive if you're trying to stop Ginebra. And he rebounds like a mofo too.
Justin Brownlee vs Bong Quinto/ Allein Maliksi
I don't get the Magic Brownlee tag. Just call him Ginebra's Michael Jordan. Maliksi's practically useless when his shooting is off target.
Japeth Aguilar vs Raymond Almazan
Yay for Meralco, they got a rim protector who can spread the floor. But Aguilar's been on a different level since Coach Tim Cone arrived at Ginebra. Sure, he still bites on fakes, but he appears to be a bit tougher. Less erratic. More confident in attacking the rim (and simply jamming it in). Also, Japeth seems to play with more aggression whenever he faces off against Almazan. Even when Rakenrol was still with RoS.
Joe DeVance/ Greg Slaughter vs Allen Durham
That's about as one-sided of an affair as you can get. Which is tough on paper, but execution-wise, Meralco is running their sets more fluidly than Ginebra. Ginebra's players gets away with a lot because of their superb 1-on-1 talent, but you can see during their dry spells that they do have instances wherein they just don't know what set to run or who to go to. Well, save for iso-Brownlee or iso-Pringle.
But that's just us nitpicking really.
BUT, if you're Meralco, they were pretty much in control of Game 1 up until the 4th quarter when their starters obviously started to tire out as opposed to Ginebra who kept putting in fresh legs-- specially on Durham (DeVance and Slaughter kept taking turns in guarding him down low). So that's one, Meralco simply can't afford to have their key guys playing 33 minutes and up. Not when the name of the game is to try and stop Ginebra from busting open the gates.
X-factor: Joe DeVance, his high IQ and big bum on defense for Ginebra; Bong Quinto for Meralco
Prediction: Ginebra.
