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| Pampanga's Best (Photo courtesy of Sports5) |
On one side is powerhouse San Miguel Beer, now seemingly exorcised of all its demons and drama, which is looking to win its first All-Filipino championship since the glory days of the now exiled Danny Ildefonso and Danny Seigle in 2001. On the other side are the Alaska Aces, a team that has slowly rebuilt its basketball program to fit the modern era and its new core of mostly blue collar talent.
Here we try to look at the match-ups, where the strengths lie for each team and who can turn the tides when need be. Based on the names on the roster, it's easy to give San Miguel the advantage but then you realize that the Aces feature guys who are just as good yet have managed to fly under the radar owing to their #wenotme battlecry.
In their first and only encounter this conference, the game was turned into an ugly grind-it-out slugfest which the Aces won 66-63. They were led by Cyrus Baguio (13 points), JVee Casio (11 points, 5 rebounds), Sonny Thoss (9 points) and the superhuman Calvin Abueva (5 points, 18 rebounds). The Beermen were led by Arwind Santos (14 points, 9 rebounds), Chris Lutz (13 points, 4 rebounds) and Junemar Fajardo (10 points, 16 rebounds). Missing from the latter is Marcio Lassiter who had a horrendous shooting night, going 0/7 from three point territory.
While one can argue that the Beermen could have salvaged that game, the low scoring style heavily favors the Aces. While they do feature names like Baguio, Casio and Hontiveros, this version of the Aces are not really the type to bombard opponents from deep. No, these Aces are a blue collar, grind-it-out style that generates its offense from defense.
The thing with the Aces is that they definitely have the size (Thoss, Eric Menk, Samigue Eman) to basically stick to single coverage on the Beermen's Junemar Fajardo which is not something a lot of other PBA teams can say. Then there's the hard working Abueva, whose infectious energy and relentless hustle often inspires his teammates to try and match him on the court (wala naman sempre gusto mapahiya pag nakita mo yung kakampi mo nagpapakamatay sa bola tapos ikaw #larongmayaman).
Another thing that we saw in the series against Rain or Shine is that the Aces have no problems pressing the basketball for 3/4 of the game. So not only can the Aces play lockdown man-to-man and disciplined halfcourt defenses, they can also go full court when the need arises.
And this is where the Beermen are probably thanking GlobalPort for gift-wrapping one Alex Cabagnot over to them.
See, Sol Mercado is an able ball handler and is damn strong. But we have never seen him play against a full court press. We have seen him pressured, and when he is unable to bulldoze his way against his defender, it usually ends in a turnover.
Well, Cabagnot, love him or hate him, is not only quick, but he is also an excellent reader of defenses. He is a shifty lefty, which is troublesome for a lot of defenders. Him, plus Chris Ross should be able to break the press just fine. As for the match-ups, here is how we think they will go:
PG Alex Cabagnot/ Chris Ross vs JVee Casio/ Chris Banchero
Cabagnot is going to light up the Aces' point guards unless head coach Alex Compton sends Ping Exciminiano (fresh from locking down Rain or Shine's Paul Lee) to cover him exclusively. See, the "Prodigal Beerman" has flawlessly integrated himself into the Beermen's new offense and looked damn efficient against Talk'n'Text which boasts of having one of the better defenses in the whole PBA. If a guy like Jonathan Uyloan could light up Casio, what more a Cabagnot? Banchero could be a possible x-factor here given his size and smarts, but he's more role than impact player in his rookie year so far.
Adv. SMB... unless Casio turns on the "God Mode" switch in tight games of course.
SG Chris Lutz/ Ronald Tubid vs Cyrus Baguio/ RJ Jazul
Lutz has a definite size and strength advantage over Baguio, but don't count out the former UST King Tiger just yet. Based on the Rain or Shine series, Baguio is slowly starting to come out of hibernation and looking to score some more-- a role that is really up in the open for the Aces because they do not have a legit go-to-guy it seems. Problem here is, if Lutz is off-sync, a guy by the name of Ronald Tubid is just waiting his turn and he has always been a problem for Baguio on both ends of the court.
Adv. SMB
SF Marcio Lassiter vs Calvin Abueva/ Dondon Hontiveros
Lassiter has the fortitude to battle Abueva, however, his game is not meant to guard Abueva anywhere near the shaded lane. He'll get clobbered. Hard. His best bet is to hope that Hontiveros stays on the floor a lot longer and that he draws this assignment instead of Abueva. Maybe a switch with Santos? But who guards Vic Manuel? This is going to be a tricky one, and we will not be surprised if Lutz and Lassiter are actually subbing for one another instead of playing together when the Aces put Abueva at the 4 spot. From a geek's standpoint, Lutz and Lassiter are basically the same player as Hontiveros-- can shoot, dribble and defend. But yeah, Abueva is Abueva. If the man has no qualms taking and giving hits to guys like Beau Belga and JayR Quinahan, what makes you think he'll fear an alleged #larongmayaman in Lassiter, et. al.?
Adv. Alaska
PF Arwind Santos vs Vic Manuel
Santos' long range shooting will help him versus Manuel, but inside, he'll be in for a rude awakening. The more minutes Manuel gets from his coaches, the more his confidence goes up as well as his ruggedness on the floor. We still see Santos rising in this match-up, but only until Abueva is shifted into the 4 spot by design-- that's when the real fireworks will begin as both are basically, fundamentally, the same player with the only thing separating or differentiating them is Abueva's 100% full-throttle, attack mentality. Now, if Gabby Espinas is in game shape, this is going to be very tricky for SMB.
Adv. SMB
C Junemar Fajardo vs Sonny Thoss/ Eric Menk/ Samigue Eman
The reigning PBA Most Valuable Player went berserk versus Talk'n'Text's collection of wings disguised as centers. This time around he'll be facing guys who. though may still be shorter than him, are not afraid to bang bodies and actually know how to defend guys Fajardo's size. Remember Menk's valiant stand against the "Great Wall of China" in FIBA play years ago? We do. He's gotten older, but the basics are still there. Then there's Thoss, who looks to be back in shape-- it wasn't that long ago when he was hailed as the PBA's Best Center remember? Oh, and Eman? He's good for six fouls while standing 6"9. No, seriously, he scored 8 points against Fajardo in that 66-63 win. So he has some offense at least.
Adv. SMB... but not as big an advantage as you'd think
Prediction: San Miguel wins in a heated yet highly technical series
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