PBA Finals Preview: Alaska vs San Miguel

#smcbetterworld #grandslamdreams
(Photo credit to PBA.Inquirer.net)

In the end, it was all but a matter of time for these two great PBA franchises to once again lock horns in the PBA Finals.

On one side are the Alaska Aces, the very epitome of selfless team play and current proof that you do not always need to have the best players in the league to win big (though it sure as hell helps to make life a lot easier).  The Aces are banking mostly on Vic Manuel (24mpg 16ppg 8rpg 1apg), Calvin Abueva (21mpg 13ppg 9rpg 2apg) and Sonny Thoss (24mpg 11ppg 6rpg 2apg) while maximizing whatever they can get from JVee Casio, Cyrus Baguio, Chris Banchero and the rest.

On the other are the powerhouse San Miguel Beermen, armed to the teeth with arguably some of the best at their respective positions today. They are led by the reigning, defending 2x PBA MVP Junemar Fajardo (36mpg 23ppg 14rpg 2apg), 1x PBA MVP Arwind Santos (34mpg 16ppg 7rpg 2apg), Alex Cabagnot (32mpg 15ppg 4rpg 5apg) and Marcio Lassiter (24mpg 10ppg 4rpg 2apg) while getting ample support from Chris Ross (21mpg 5ppg 3rpg 4apg 1spg), Ronald Tubid and Ryan Arana to name a few.

Built versus bought. Good versus evil. Stars versus super-duper stars.

The story and plotlines are endless.

That being said, let’s get to the numbers and match-ups:

Alaska
101ppg (3), 49rpg, 45% from 2 (2), 39% from 3 (1), 21 apg (2), 7spg

*(ranking this conference)

San Miguel
97ppg, 50rpg,  43% from 2, 31% from 3, 20apg, 7.3spg

PG Casio/ Jazul/ Exciminiano vs Cabagnot/ Ross
This one is going to be tricky for the Aces, since they will need to keep rotating at the PG spot in hopes of neutralizing Cabagnot who is SMB’s linchpin on offense. We wouldn’t be too surprised if Banchero or Exciminiano get more daylight in this series. Ross will make Casio irrelevant.
Adv. SMB

SG Baguio/ Banchero vs Lassiter
How do you stop Lassiter when he’s in rhythm? Pressure.  Lots of it. Fight through whatever screens and stick to him. This basically means that the Aces will have to rotate their guards more actively in this series than the one versus Globalport.  Or, they could just hope and pray that Lassiter goes through one of his notorious funks—you know, the times when he plays so many minutes but does not appear to be interested in playing at all (has happened a few times, once in the RoS series even).
Adv. SMB

SF Abueva/ Hontiveros vs Tubid/ Lutz 
Abueva’s antics will not work on Tubid. Not when they are out in the perimeter. Out there, it is going to be a surefire flop-fest between these two gentlemen. Abueva’s advantage lies when he switches to help down low, where his Cabalen rival Arwind Santos awaits. Hontiveros might make a few shots, maybe they can play him at the 2 spot in stretches to play alongside Abueva.
Adv. AA

PF Manuel vs Santos/ Espinas
The Beermen came prepared. Santos vs Abueva is the dream match-up of course, but we just do not see Manuel switching to 5 and being forced to guard Fajardo (that would be a massacre and waste of Manuel’s contributions). As good as Manuel has been this conference, Santos is even better guarding traditional and not so heavy power forwards. Why? The 4 spot is Santos’ natural defensive position. And if you just so happen to be about the same size and height, he has no problem proving yet again how he built his reputation over the years. Should Coach Leo Austria move Santos to check Abueva, Espinas vs Manuel should be very entertaining; with the advantage going to Manuel.
Adv. SMB

C Thoss vs Fajardo
Is Fajardo hurt or was he just caught with a stinger? As of this writing, Team SMC has been saying that there is no real, serious injury and that they are just waiting for the MRI results. Still, if Fajardo isn't 100%, then Thoss will be able to hold his own against him. If he sits the series out entirely, then that's a different story since SMB will be forced to rely on JayR Reyes and Yancy de Ocampo at the slot. Solid, but not half the threat as Fajardo (unless of course someone dangles a huge bonus in front of Yancy's eyes).
Adv. SMB IF JMF is healthy, tied if not

How SMB wins
If they simply listen to Coach Leo and follow their game plan by moving the ball first instead of dumping it into Fajardo (who still does not know how to kick the ball out) and watching his greatness, this team is near unbeatable. No, they do not need to balance everyone’s minutes out and have their core group play 25 minutes tops. That is not their style. They are a throwback team in the sense that the first five plays a third of the game while the rest play ¼. It’s the same even in the late 90s and early 00s with Olsen, Dondon, Danny S and Danny I. They had solid players off the bench, but the stars are the stars for a reason.

How Alaska wins
Relentless pressure. This is an intelligent team that follows their gameplan to a “T.” They do not enjoy half the firepower of SMB, but because they are a disciplined unit, they are able to make up for each other’s weaknesses by playing together. They have enough bigs to not over-react to anything Fajardo does in the paint, no matter how dominant he looks (yes, we are expecting a borderline 50-20 game somewhere in this PBA Finals). There is no need to double Fajardo, but there is a great need to zero in on Cabagnot, Lassiter and Santos. One failed pick and roll/pop switch, the defense crumbles and the Beermen either finish with an easy Fajardo 2 or an open Lassiter/ Santos 3. 

And also, if Fajardo doesn't play, advantage goes Alaska. If he plays at 50-70%, Thoss can take him. 

X-factors
SMB: Gabby Espinas, Ronald Tubid and Ryan Arana
The Aces will try to get rough and physical at some point, it’s up to SMB’s enforcers to respond in kind

AA:  Chris Banchero
Either versus Cabagnot or Lassiter, Banchero’s under-rated defense will be put to the test in this series

Prediction: SMB if Fajardo is 100%, Aces if Fajardo sits the series out.

Who do you think wins? @kilikilishot on Twitter