2016 PBA GC Finals: 3 Ginebra vs 4 Meralco

"Yo, you take on LA okay?"
(Photo credit: PBA.Inquirer.net)

When was the last time that both the lower seeded teams in the Semifinals faced off in the PBA Finals?

Usually, a higher seed (or two) are almost, always locks for a spot(s) in the title series. However, in the 2016 PBA Governor’s Cup, we saw both the 1st ranked TNT Katropa and 2nd San Miguel Beermen fall at the hands of this entry’s protagonists who are ranked lower and should technically be “weaker.”

Right?

Wrong. They just beat the top seeds, so their being supposedly “weak” is moot.

First to make it into the PBA Finals are the Meralco Bolts of Coach Norman Black. After an embarrassing campaign to open the season, the Bolts’ true form started to surface once they were able to work with a dominant center as reinforcement. We saw flashes of how good the team could be in the Commissioner’s Cup when they had mammoth import Arinze Onuaku and now we are seeing even more with Allen Durnham.

On the other side of the fence are the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel; already destined and penciled in for greatness after acquiring the services of 2x PBA Grand Slam coach Tim Cone earlier this year. While they are missing the services of 7”0 slotman Greg Slaughter, everyone has appeared to step up and rally around import Justin Brownlee who was not even their original choice to start the conference.

Two grand slam coaches, two team-oriented philosophies: who wins?

PG: L.A. Tenorio vs Jimmy Alapag/ Baser Amer
Alapag has definitely appeared to have benefited from his brief “retirement,” leading the Bolts into respectability and just delivering the same “Mighty Mouse” stat line of old. Ably backing him up is Amer, though the former San Beda Red Lion appears to be under a short leash. Still, Tenorio has been playing like a man on a mission—which we think he is, after being cut from Gilas and being robbed of the opportunity to play against the likes of Tony Parker. It is going to be tough, and both parties could easily cancel each other out, but Tenorio takes the nod in our book since he’ll still be on the floor affecting the turnout of close matches while Alapag will have to rest every now and then.
Adv. Ginebra

SG: Scottie Thompson/ Mark Caguioa vs Chris Newsome
With all due respect to the former PBA MVP Caguioa, this is going to be an intriguing match-up between superstar rookies Thompson and Newsome. Newsome is the “featured” rookie for Coach Norman, playing heavy minutes and being entrusted to do whatever he wishes to. He is ultra-athletic and finishes strong in the box. Thompson on the other hand is the opposite of Newsome. He isn’t featured in the Ginebra offense, his near triple-doubles are mostly a byproduct of his activity and IQ and most of all, he is not going to be dunking on anyone soon. Natural high-flyer versus grounded-skill. This could very well be the key match-up in the series, since Thompson has a knack for being the 2nd point guard on the floor, aiding Tenorio, which gives Ginebra more options and totally unpredictable to guard while Newsome "simply" anchors the Bolts’ slashing offense.
Adv. Tied

SF: Sol Mercado vs Jared Dillinger
How is Dillinger's body coming along after having to sit out the last few games of their semis match-up against TNT? We are asking, because we are not too sold on Brian Faundo taking his place (and shots) or anyone else on that roster at the moment. Aljon Mariano usually gets the starting nod here for Ginebra; playing hard-nosed defense and just doing all the intangibles but when the games are tight Coach Tim usually goes with a “small three” of Tenorio, Thompson and Mercado. Dillinger’s height could be an advantage, but if he’s hurt/ can’t run/ can’t make 3s, Mercado will make the Bolts pay for sure.
Adv. Tied

Japeth Aguilar/ Joe DeVance vs Cliff Hodge/ Reynel Hugnatan
#Twinning best suits this match-up, as Aguilar and Hodge are practically cut from the same cloth as basketball players: athletic and energetic with room for improvement in terms of game IQ. Aguilar has been on quite a tear as of late, and for that we will have to give props to Coach Tim and Tenorio for keeping their 6”9 forward involved and engaged. Hodge on the other hand has “matured” somewhat, playing a little more under control and slowly developing into the kind of hybrid 4 that Coach Norman likes (read: ADMU Noy Baclaos serving as the prototype). Their backups, DeVance and Hugnatan, are no patsies either, and could easily be deciding factors in a game or two when called upon.
Adv. Tied

Justin Brownlee vs Allen Durnham
Though both imports are almost similarly built, Brownlee has a slight advantage when it comes to being able to play in the perimeter while Durnham is mostly an inside operator. If the Bolts are not too careful, Ginebra’s bigs could very well pull out their bigs which is not to their advantage considering Dillinger and Alapag cannot be relied upon to help rebound the basketball while Thompson, Mercado and even Tenorio are 4-5 rpg guys.
Adv. Ginebra

X-factor: Scottie Thompson
We are not saying that Thompson is going to outshine his rookie rival Newsome, only that he is going to be able to do more damage than the other. See, Thompson is excelling as Tenorio’s “back-up” point while technically playing the “small forward” role (despite being penciled in at SG). If you ask us, Thompson is the small forward who does a little bit of everything, Tenorio the point, Aguilar is the designated scorer (SG) alongside Brownlee while Mariano is actually, in reality, the 4 guy. Newsome on the other hand has two roles: score and play defense. Not that that’s a bad thing, but he could score 30 points or even lockdown Tenorio on the switch, but they still could lose the game. Thompson? He could affect the game without even scoring (as proven in the playoffs).

All that being said, this is going to be a great Finals for basketball purists but maybe a bit ugly (specially if Meralco can have its way) for the casual fan. Both teams made it to the PBA Finals by playing tough defense and being team-oriented. For Ginebra, sometimes it's Tenorio, others it's Aguilar, Brownlee, maybe even Mercado or Thompson. For Meralco, it's more of the same, except that you can't really pencil anyone in for a huge game. Alapag? Nope. Newsome? Maybe. Dillinger? Hodge? Hugnatan?

Both teams simply just find ways to win ballgames.

Prediction: Ginebra
We went with the "gut feel" explanation in the semifinals versus San Miguel. This time, with Dillinger not at 100% and Ginebra peaking, it is going to be pretty tough to really bet against them finally breaking their eight-year title drought. They have more firepower on the bench, Joe DeVance and Mark Caguioa will most likely have a breakout game or two while Meralco will simply have to rely on solid teamwork to gut this one out.

We could be wrong here, and the series is definitely a lot closer than most people think.

Your thoughts? @kilikilishot on Twitter!