PBA Ph C F: 1 San Miguel V 7 Ginebra

Ginebra is on the rise
(Photo credit: sports5.ph)

Call it a date with destiny.

When Tim Cone was transplanted from his grand slam throne with the Star Hotshots to Barangay Ginebra San Miguel, expectations of turning the franchise around and multiple title runs were the norm. Everyone agreed that if anyone could make Ginebra’s giants, 7”0 Greg Slaughter and 6”9 Japeth Aguilar, regular fixtures in the PBA Playoffs and Finals it could be no one else but Cone.

And following that same logic, a fantasy showdown was born: Cone’s Ginebra versus the league’s current crème dela crème; San Miguel Beer and its own giant: the reigning 3x PBA MVP, 6”10, Junemar Fajardo.

Last season, San Miguel won its 2nd straight PBA Philippine Cup title which further cemented the supremacy of its local cast while Ginebra, only three conferences into the Cone Era, ended the season with a title of its own.
When was the last time San Miguel and Ginebra squared off in the PBA Finals that follows a similar picture? Our memory is a bit cloudy, but the 2001 All Filipino (Philippine) Cup is the best one that comes to mind. Ginebra’s Mark Caguioa was taking the league by storm (with fans dreaming of building a new dynasty/era) while San Miguel, powered by Danny Seigle, Danny Ildefonso and Olsen Racela, were the team to beat (and eventual champions). These two teams would also meet in the PBA Finals later on, but that 2001 series' subplot is similar to 2017: Ginebra is starting to flirt with thoughts of building a dynasty under Cone while again standing in the way are the mighty Beermen.

Here is a quick history lesson: for Dynasties to be built, another has to be destroyed.

PG Chris Ross/ RR Garcia V L.A. Tenorio
“Where L.A. goes, so does Ginebra” this has become something of an SOP response when we are asked about the team's chances going into any Playoff or Finals match-up. Though we are pretty sure that Cone will develop Scottie Thompson into Tenorio’s eventual replacement; at present everything still rides on how good the veteran is playing overall. The problem here is "how will Tenorio respond to Ross’ pesky defense and Garcia’s expected firepower coming off the bench?" Thankfully, Ginebra had a “dry run” of sorts versus Star wherein Mark Barroca basically played both roles of Ross (defense) and Garcia (offense) versus Tenorio. Cone was able to make the necessary adjustments in order to hide Tenorio a bit more on defense as that semifinals series progressed. Versus the Beermen, we're not so sure that they'll simply let Tenorio take a breather or do as he pleases—even if it requires Ross to put up some shots.
Adv. Tied

SG Alex Cabagnot V Sol Mercado/ Scottie Thompson
Give Mercado an A+ for staying on Paul Lee in the Star series enough for Ginebra to win four games to three. However, the clutch heroics is pretty much the only thing that Lee and Mercado’s new assignment, Alex Cabagnot, have in common. Cabagnot is much shiftier side to side, as he doesn’t rely on power (like Lee, Mercado and even TNT’s Jayson Castro) to plow through defenses. Add the fact that the Beermen have shown in the closeout games of their series against TNT that they can run pick and roll/pop plays whenever they want to (they just bullishly don’t do it as often) which will make life even tougher for Mercado. Mark Caguioa might be asked to take Cabagnot on offense, but we’re not sure that Mr. Greybeard can effectively stay in front of Cabagnot on defense (maybe in 2010, definitely not in 2017). Thompson has been playing at a very high level for Ginebra, but it would be a disaster at to put him on Cabagnot the way both guys are right now. Thompson on Garcia would make plenty of sense though.
Adv. SMB

SF Marcio Lassiter V Kevin Ferrer/ Chris Ellis/ Aljon Mariano
Lassiter had a so-so outing versus TNT. He didn’t exactly light anyone up and ironically, was getting lit by rookie RR Pogoy on the other end. In this series however, we expect at least one Lassiter breakout game. Ellis has improved, but he’s still the same dude. Ferrer can guard Lassiter but only to a certain point, as speed will be in the Beerman’s favor. Mariano is also another guy that Cone can throw on Lassiter, but he’ll be guarding a guy who’s in his natural SG-SF position while he’s out of his comfort zone. Sol Mercado might be the better man for the job and even Paolo Taha (who Cone played in spurts versus Star in what we feel was a strategic move to prepare the young man for this series).
Adv. Ginebra

PF Arwind Santos/ Gabby Espinas V Joe DeVance/ Jervy Cruz
On a good day, and we say this with all the love and respect for him, Joe DeVance would trump Santos and Espinas. On paper, he has the skillset, the size, everything that would make him look a lot better on the court than the Beermen duo. However, he’s been playing on one healthy foot while Santos pretty much low-key dominated the SMB-TNT series by averaging constant double-doubles AND holding Ranidel de Ocampo down. Espinas? The man was taking everyone from RdO, Kelly Williams, Moala Tautuaa and even Troy Rosario to school in the low post. Sure, Ginebra has some size with Cruz and Dave Marcelo, but we expect to see Kevin Ferrer sliding up to the 4 to combat Santos early as they play a bit similarly (shoot threes and play 3-4 defense) though Santos is a rebounding machine. To win, Ginebra needs to keep Santos (and Espinas) off the boards at all times to ensure that they have more possessions.
Adv. SMB

C Junemar Fajardo V Japeth Aguilar
Fajardo is uncomfortable posting up Aguilar; that’s not a secret. Unlike Slaughter and other bigs who just wait for the contact in the paint, Aguilar always plays Fajardo in angles much like how TNT’s Kelly Williams did in their series. Aguilar is taller and has a higher leaping ability, which makes those entry lobs that Fajardo kept asking for versus Williams a complete no-no. That post-up fade away of Fajardo’s? Bet money that Aguilar can reach it. The only way for Fajardo to really score on Aguilar is to bully him inside, use the rim for protection (go reverse) and make him bite on pump fakes (he will, 9 times out of 10, Aguilar will always bite). For Aguilar, the blueprint is there: pull Fajardo outside anywhere from 17 feet to 30 and shoot. Dribble if there’s space/ room. Fajardo won’t go all the way outside because he’s wary of getting beaten to the hoop. Fajardo guarding Aguilar on the outside also means that Thompson can crash the boards with abandon. This is going to be a fun match-up, and it will most likely come down to who can force his style on who. Also, on how refs call it.
Adv. Tied

X-Factor:

RR Garcia, SMB
The former UAAP MVP was brought into the fold for one reason: to become the team’s point guard of the future. Cabagnot is 35 while Ross is 31, so the timing couldn’t be any better for Garcia to both learn from two of the league’s best AND provide firepower off the bench. He has shown that he can do it quite well for the Beermen though he was problems with consistency. Given how Cone devises different schemes to turn games into low-scoring affairs, it is all up to Garcia to ensure that he gives the Beermen a boost when he comes in and controls tempo.

Scottie Thompson, Ginebra
If Garcia supplies the firepower for San Miguel, then Thompson provides Ginebra with that relentless “ganado” energy. The Beermen are notorious for playing their starters up to three quarters and a half on average, so Ginebra’s “grind it out” style will definitely force them to exert even more effort (and mental focus) on both ends. If they are not too careful, Thompson could easily take control of the game with another near triple double or double digit rebounding output which we think will dictate the way the series goes.

Prediction:

There is something about that SMB-TNT series that left a bad taste in our mouths. Coach Leo Austria optimistically kept going with his standard plays of either going to Fajardo or Cabagnot and nothing more. It was only until Games 5, 6 and 7 when Austria unleashed a “new” scheme: the pick and roll of doom. Okay, the doom part was exaggerated. But TNT sure as hell didn’t know what to do against it, knowing quite well that should they focus on the P&R, SMB will simply go back to looking for Fajardo (who will be open as the weak side non-screener) or kicking it out to any of the shooters.

So yes, as much as their own fans call out Austria, the guy has a lot of tricks up his sleeve. It's almost like SMB was fighting the whole conference as a basic Saiyan (simple plays on offense), only to be backed up against the wall by TNT and going Super Saiyan (pick and roll of doom unleashed).

Ginebra on the other hand is more “basic.” Their calling card is defense, the offense is ugly, brutal even. When guys like Tenorio and Mercado aren’t feeling it, the whole thing becomes such an eyesore. How they score and win is, with mental focus. They slow the game down to their liking, they run only when they need to, and they don’t rely on the three ball. Less threes means less long rebounds. That means, their bigs (and Thompson) can get into proper position for rebounds. More rebounds mean more possessions. More possessions means, more chances of slowing the game down. Ugh. They do run the triangle, they run a few a-sets and some baseline plays (specially for that sneaky Ferrer kid), but when things go bad, they rally around each other and play defense.

Not saying that San Miguel doesn’t, just that Ginebra does it at a higher level.

If we’re talking firepower and depth, Ginebra is deep, but not San Miguel deep. Fajardo and Santos are league MVPs playing at high level. Lassiter is a Gilas-worthy sharpshooter. Ross is an elite defender. Garcia is a collegiate MVP. Espinas. Yancy de Ocampo. MVPs. Ginebra has a couple of PBA MVPs, but two of them are on their “last rides.” They have college MVPs Jervy Cruz and Scottie Thompson, but one’s been riding the bench a lot while the other is still quite young.

Honestly, this series favors San Miguel. By a mile. But much like in the game of chess, a guy can lose his Queen, Bishops and Tower and still beat his opponent who has a full set.

It’s going to be Tim Cone’s brain versus San Miguel’s manpower.

And so far, Tim Cone's brain has taken them from salvaging 7th seed while playing mostly on Sundays all the way here.

Call it another crazy gut feel, but we’re going with Ginebra.

And no one would really mind if this series went the full route, yes?

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