PBA Ph C QF: 1 San Miguel v 8 Rain or Shine

Lassiter v Cruz will be key
(Photo credit: pba-online.net)

Will San Miguel waltz into the next round or will Rain or Shine prove (to itself, above all) that there is indeed life after Yeng Guiao and Paul Lee?

There are a lot of questions going on between this odd pairing, mostly because RoS on paper is a much better team than their lowly seeding would suggest. Can they beat San Miguel? History says they can, and on paper, while they do not have anyone standing on equal footing as San Miguel's 3x PBA MVP Junemar Fajardo and his backup Yancy de Ocampo, they are quite tall over-all.

Like, average height of roughly 6"3 spread around, tall AND wide.

Let's review the match-ups:
PG Chris Ross/ RR Garcia v Maverick Ahanmisi/ Chris Tiu
Maybe it had something to do with Chris Tiu reverse drop-kicking Chris Ross in the nuts the last season. Or that Ross' pesky defense simply rubs Tiu the wrong way. All things considered, San Miguel enjoys a great advantage here given Ross' tenacity and Garcia's firepower versus the athletic limitations of Tiu and the inconsistency of Ahanmisi. For RoS to win, they will need Ahanmisi and rookie Mike Tolomia to play their A games.
Adv. SMB

SG Alex Cabagnot v Jeff Chan/ James Yap
Just look at the firepower on this one. Unfortunately, Chan and Yap are going through conference-long shooting slumps while Cabagnot has reinvented himself as a full-time shooting guard. A very clutch one at that. Now Cabagnot doesn't have to worry about looking for teammates each time down, since Coach Leo Austria has given him the green light to shoot the ball when he feels like it. There is a reason why San Miguel is 10-1 and not 8-3 or 7-4, and that's Cabagnot.
Adv. SMB

SF Marcio Lassiter v Jericho Cruz/ Gabe Norwood
We would like to make an argument for Lassiter, and how he is currently the league's best two-way player much like former San Miguel stalwart Dondon Hontiveros was back in his prime with the team. Though he isn't the 1st or 2nd option on offense, everyone knows that you can't simply forget where Lassiter is on the hardcourt. On the flip side, Cruz has risen to become RoS key creator. The wins that they enjoyed early this conference were a byproduct of guys playing off Cruz' penetrations. The losses? That's when Cruz went on a slump, and other guys, shooters by trade (see SGs), started flirting with the idea of being creators. Cruz will be a big factor for San Miguel, and it's no secret that they know this considering how the team chose to put Ross on Cruz in the 1st quarter (1) of their elimination game. Norwood needs to be switched on the cross-match against this next guy...
Adv. SMB

PF Arwind Santos/ Gabby Espinas v Beau Belga
... Arwind Santos. The former PBA MVP and much-maligned San Miguel star has been quietly putting up solid numbers this conference, back to his old "shadow" self and working exclusively on the weak side. If RoS isn't too careful, Santos will low key control the game all by himself since RoS bigs play right into his defensive abilities: they don't post up and shoot jumpers, which is easy enough for Santos to guard. Belga needs to flex his muscles big time and not fall in love with the outside shot.
Adv. SMB

C Junemar Fajardo/ Yancy de Ocampo v Jay Washington/ Jewel Ponferada
RoS' bigs will try, and we wish that the PBA awarded Best Player of the Game to Washington instead of Tolomia in that Blackwater knockout match. Why? Just to boost Washington's moral going in versus Fajardo. Fajardo has the size and strength advantage sure, but Washington, on his best day, is not exactly someone he could easily pull off a spin against or shoot over. Washington, Ponferada, Belga, Dexter Maiquez and Ronnie Matias all have to keep Fajardo guessing and hopefully tire him out by virtue of playing a little physical (or a lot, depending on the referees). Oh, Raymond. :(
Adv. SMB

X-Factor: Gabby Espinas/ Yancy de Ocampo for San Miguel, Mike Tolomia for Rain or Shine
We know what we're going to get from Fajardo and Santos, so it's up to Espinas and YdO to chip in and make sure that RoS' motley crew of backups are forced to play defense on them as well in a team effort to have them gassed by the 4th. For RoS, young Tolomia's scoring prowess needs to be unleashed, if only to cancel out his senior, RR Garcia.

Prediction: San Miguel