PBACC The Quarterfinals: Rain or Shine vs Barangay Ginebra

Angas ng Tondo vs The Spark
(Photo courtesy of Inquirer.net)

For all intents and purposes, there is definitely no love lost in this quarterfinals pairing of the number 1 seeded Rain or Shine Elastopainters, which enjoys a twice to beat advantage, and the 8th seeded Barangay Ginebra San Miguel.

The Elastopainters are the league's hottest team, with arguably the most consistent performance in his young career EVER from star guard Paul Lee, while Ginebra just keep on losing winnable games much to the dismay of their fans. There's also the whole "L.A. Tenorio tantrum watch" -- you know, when the man tasked to lead the Ginebra faithful to glory stomps his foot, makes that stink face and just brushes off everyone on the floor including his own coaches and teammates.

Can Ginebra do it?

Yes, they can.

Will they be able to do it?

Well, that depends on a lot of factors-- first internally. Mark Caguioa is on the decline, and he is probably quick to realize this though he continues to be put into unfair situations where he is to carry his team to victory. He is no longer that same Caguioa who can easily beat his man off the dribble. Not against the Elastopainters' young and hungry guards like Lee, Ryan Arana, Chris Tiu, Jireh Ibanes and even Jericho Cruz all out to prove themselves on the hardcourt and reward the faith entrusted into them by head coach Yeng Guiao.

No. Caguioa will need all the help he can get for this one and it needs to start with Greg Slaughter. In that controversial first match-up, Slaughter was hardly a factor despite being the tallest man on the court. Yes, he posted his usual numbers, but he did it in a very quiet manner against a 6"6 Beau Belga, 6"7 Raymond Almazan and 6"4 JayR Quinahan.

Slaughter is 7"0 tall for crying out loud.

Ginebra's import, Mike Dunnigan, will be negated by his Elastopainters counterpart Wayne Chism who will definitely score on a variety of ways in trying to open up the inside and force whoever is guarding him all the way out. Tonight's sprained ankle for Japeth Aguilar is going to be big, since he'll be the one guy who can at least make Chism work hard on the floor.

No, Mac Baracael is too small. Chris Ellis is thin. Dylan Ababou is slow. Dorian Pena? Chism's going to go Ivan Johnson HAM from the 3 point line on poor old Pena.

Then there's Tenorio. It has to be Tenorio. Eman Monfort, God bless him, will be eviscerated by Paul Lee. He'll scratch and claw, but Paul Lee is Paul Lee. They'll have to rotate Baracael and Ellis on that guy to make sure the doesn't duplicate his 18 points and 11 rebounds performance the last time out.

Tenorio. Slaughter. Aguilar on defense.

These three guys will be the key to forcing a winner-take-all match.

For the Elastopainters?

They just need to keep playing Elastopainters basketball, and if it means punking and psyching out this soft version of Ginebra? Then you can bet your ass they'll hit much harder (as much action as the refs would allow even).

Chism has been all over the place, filling up whatever holes are there for the team-- defense, offense, whatever. Paul Lee's been busy looking like a mega-watt star, Jeffrei Chan's happy with his role in the offense. Belga's Belga. Oh, and that dude Jonathan Uyloan keeps playing like he's coming for EVERYONE'S MINUTES.

Plus, Jericho Cruz is healthy. That kid can ball.

Ginebra needs a miracle to win this match-up, the way they are now.

But for a miracle, you also need heart.

Fearless forecast: RoS advances. Logically.