PBA GC SF 2 San Miguel Beer vs 3 Ginebra

The Kraken vs The Aguila(r)
(Photo credit: Sports5.ph)

We are going to be in for quite a #TeamSanMiguel slobber knocker of a semifinals clash between sister teams: defending PBA Governor’s Cup champions San Miguel Beer and the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel.

In a sense, this is the basketball God’s way of “testing” head coach Tim Cone’s Ginebra squad: should they wish to further themselves and live up to championship expectations, then they will have to go through arguably the most dominant team in the last two seasons. It won’t be easy, since the Beermen appear to have (re)embraced a certain “win now, win big” philosophy anchored on making the most out of 2x PBA MVP Junemar Fajardo’s (still young) basketball career.

So who will win the Best-of-Five affair (which, in all honestly, would most likely command audiences worthy of any PBA Finals or All Star Game all in itself)? Here is our take:


PG Alex Cabagnot/ Chris Ross vs L.A. Tenorio/ Scottie ThompsonCan we please have more of that Tenorio who massacred the Alaska Aces just last Friday? The oft-maligned veteran Ginebra point guard reminded everyone just how good he is on the basketball court, dissecting the Aces’ vaunted trap defense and just obliterating whoever dared to guard him. Now, why we ask that we have more of that kind of performance is because Ginebra will need it against the Beermen’s Cabagnot-Ross duo. Ross will undoubtedly get on Tenorio’s nerves with his stingy defense (as he has done in the past) while Cabagnot does his thing on offense. Rookie Thompson needs to step up in this one, because if there were ever a chink in the current Ginebra’s armor, it is their backcourt defense (the available players mostly being: too short, too young or too old).
Adv. San Miguel

SG Marcio Lassiter vs Sol Mercado/ Mark Caguioa We initially wanted to dismiss this as a one-sided duel, given how Lassiter is able to effortlessly knock down threes en route to 20-point games. Sure, Caguioa and Mercado will have their scoring bursts here and there, but nothing Lassiter can’t match (he will be getting ample support from Ronald Tubid and Ryan Arana). But then we remember how largely inconsistent Lassiter has always been—20 point game today, game winners here and there, only to disappear from time to time despite being on the floor. In a Best-of-Five series, we see Lassiter having maybe 1 or 2 superstar games, matched by Mercado/Caguioa’s consistent 15-20 points combination/ total.
Adv. Tied

SF Arwind Santos vs Aljon Mariano/ Joe DeVance A couple of years ago, as skilled as DeVance is, Santos would’ve locked him up into obscurity. But Santos has slowed down with time and he is still coming off injury while DeVance’s skillset allows him to still be effective on offense in limited minutes. Mariano will most likely start for Ginebra, but since he is a set-shot midrange shooter with limited handles, his current game will play right into Santos’ defense. For the Beermen, it’s Santos floor-spacing and defense that will help them win it.
Adv. Tied

PF Elijah Millsap vs Justin BrownleeThis match-up is going to be special: two blue-collar guys who can get the job done both inside and outside, with a slight speed advantage going to Millsap. We weren’t quite sold on Brownlee defending perimeter players, but he has held his own against guys like Star’s Joel Wright and Alaska’s Ledontae Henson. He isn’t as mobile as those guys, but he was able to move his feet just enough to challenge them from getting open looks/ driving into the paint. Of course, it is going to be a little different with a proven NBA rotation player like Millsap. Honestly, we haven’t really seen Millsap dominate like we think he could against PBA competition. Most of it has to do with being paired with a guy like Fajardo, which tells us there is still a lot more that Millsap has to offer which could ultimately win it for San Miguel.
Adv. San Miguel

C Junemar Fajardo vs Japeth Aguilar We commend Aguilar for the vast improvement he has enjoyed under Coach Tim. He is more active on defense, and gets “rewarded” for it by teammate Tenorio with a highlight-reel worthy lob every now and then which seems to get Aguilar going even more. Still, he will be going up against Fajardo who will not engage him outside, but rather inside the lane where Aguilar is most uncomfortable. We do not expect Aguilar to guard Fajardo full-time; Brownlee might switch on him, Dave Marcelo and Jervy Cruz may get some minutes here and there. Ginebra doesn’t really need to “stop” Fajardo to win, they just need to “control” him a bit and make sure that he is unable to get his teammates involved on offense.
Adv. San Miguel

X-factor: Chris RossDespite Thompson’s progress and Mercado’s return to “Sol Train” form, Tenorio is still the guy that makes the Ginebra train go. Because Ginebra doesn’t have an A+ shooting guard anymore, Coach Leo Isaac has the luxury of moving Cabagnot to SG where he can acceptably guard either Mercado or Caguioa, while Ross zeroes in on Tenorio full-time. We have seen Tenorio throw fits (and more) against physical defenders, so we do not expect it to be any different against Ross. Either it lights a fire under Tenorio the way he went berserk against Alaska, or it burns him and Ginebra to the ground.

Overall, while Coach Tim has the advantage on the Xs and Os department (though Coach Leo isn’t any slouch either), he does not have as good a pieces as Coach Leo does at San Miguel. Gabby Espinas, Ryan Arana, Brian Heruela are starter-worthy names on the Beermen’s bench, not to mention the skilled 6”9 Yancy de Ocampo who could still teach the young Aguilar a thing or two in the paint (or even outside). Coach Tim on the other hand has a motley crew of sorts, none of whom would be starting on a contender.

What’s worrisome here, if you are a San Miguel fan, is that the Beermen has been susceptible in playing well below par the entire conference. Almost like they were in “cruise control.” There are times wherein they just stop and watch Fajardo in the paint, where the team defense and hustle is lacking and even when they just do not seem interested at all (Lassiter). They cannot have that same mentality versus Ginebra, who is here not because of their superior roster but because they have started to rally behind one another and just play together.

In the game against Ginebra, everyone was committed to winning: from Tenorio to Thompson all the way down to Jervy Cruz who had the unenviable task of trying to slow down a guy like Sonny Thoss.
While San Miguel has the better names and superior firepower, we feel that Ginebra’s hustle, effort and crowd will finally bring it all together for one magical run to the Coach Tim’s nth Finals appearance.

Call it a hunch.

Prediction: Ginebra