PBA KO Phase Round 2 Predictions: RoS Bracket

Expect fireworks.
(Photo courtesy of Sports5)

Well look what we have here: for the first time in a very long while, one of the teams that will advance to the PBA Finals will not be the Purefoods franchise. This, after a heart-breaking loss to a balanced Meralco Bolts franchise that didn't even have a superstar game from main man Gary David (where did that perfect game from James Sena come from?!).

Now, in a rather odd ball of a set-up, two teams will slug it out for the right to face the waiting PBA Philippine Cup 2nd seed Rain or Shine Elastopainters. On one side there's the Alaska Aces, a team that could've easily finished 1 or 2 if not for some lapses and the other, the Bolts.

3 Alaska Aces vs 6 Meralco Bolts
The first and only time that these two teams met in the elimination round, the Aces put on a 105-64 ass whooping of a clinic on the hapless Bolts. The Bolts were never really in the game, with Vic Manuel, Dondon Hontiveros, Calvin Abueva and rookie Chris Banchero all takings turns just scoring at will and the Bolts clearly out of form with Gary David going 2/10 from the field.

But that was then, and this is now. Now, the Bolts are able to win games inspite of David. Now, they are coming from all angles as a blue collar team led by Jarred Dillinger, Cliff Hodge and Sean Anthony. Now, even Mike Cortez is starting to get back into Cool Cat form (which was rather unexpected to say the least, specially after the way he handled himself in the Purefoods game versus speedy Mark Barroca). It's almost like Bolts' head coach Norman Black was finally able to instill his Ateneo "old school team basketball" concept to a legitimate PBA team-- something we all felt he fail to do while handling the superstar-laden Talk'n'Text squad.

At Black's disposal is a solid first five that is both young and energetic, while also maximizing the talents of the vastly under-rated John Wilson, Ryan Buenafe (who looked very comfortable out there in the Purefoods game against 2x league MVP James Yap) and big man project James Sena. Say what you will, but Black has a knack for developing big men-- from Doug Kramer, Rabeh Al Hussaini, Ford Arao, Greg Slaughter to Justin Chua and now, Sena.

Over at the Aces camp, though they started the conference in a flurry-- they have struggled somewhat the last few games. Abueva is still a beast out there but he'll have plenty of competition versus Hodge AND Anthony. He'll need a lot of help this time around, and somehow, without partner Gabby Espinas and Sonny Thoss still playing like he's back with ICTSI, we just don't see Abueva making much of an impact in this knockout game.

Which leaves us to his teammates-- they stepped up against NLEX, but can they do the same versus the Bolts? The real issue here is that, after Abueva, there seems to be no other guy who can really step up and fill that go-to-guy role. JVee Casio should be that guy, but he's still confused between running the point and scoring the basket. Dondon Hontiveros is a threat, but he'll definitely be checked (Wilson is a solid defender). Can Manuel muscle his way in the paint now that Reynel Hugnatan is healthy or with Sena looking solid down low? How about Eric Menk and Thoss? Has anyone seen the real Cyrus Baguio yet?

Much as we hate to admit it, the Aces are not in a very good position in this one despite their record. the Bolts are peaking at the right time, and you just know that Gary David is going to start making his shots sooner or later.

To paint a better picture, here's the possible match-ups:

PG JVee Casio vs Mike Cortez
The man known to have a "God Mode" hasn't been quite as Godly as before, while his DLSU predecessor, the "Cool Cat," is also coming off injury and still working on his rhythm. Though Cortez enjoys some size advantage, Casio has proven to be quite the runt on defense. Casio and his backup RJ Jazul both need to make Cortez work on defense otherwise this matchup will end up in a stalemate (with maybe a slight advantage going to Cortez, with him being the better court general). Fortunately for Alaska, they do have a rookie named Chris Banchero waiting in the wings who is basically an Italian Mike Cortez minus the one handed "galing sa bewang" layup.

SG Cyrus Baguio/ Dondon Hontiveros vs Gary David
The pairing of Baguio and Hontiveros have worked quite well for Alaska, often complementing each other as a sort of poor, poor man's PJ Simon-James Yap combo. If both players can find their groove on the floor, Alaska's going to breeze right through Meralco. But that's only if David doesn't engage them point for point.

SF Calvin Abueva vs Jarred Dillinger
Dillinger has all the tools to match Abueva. Hell, Dillinger is a much better player than Abueva is (and maybe an inch or two taller). The difference between the two is that Abueva's motor is always running, humming and going, while Dillinger takes plays off (which is evident when he looks lost out on the floor, not knowing if he should pass, shoot or set a screen for someone). If Dillinger can just put a body on Abueva and get him off the boards which usually ignites the whole Alaska running game, Meralco should be okay.

PF Vic Manuel vs Sean Anthony/ Reynel Hugnatan
Anthony has the size, but Manuel is arguably the best and most polished post player in the PBA outside of Eric Menk (and if he ever plays longer, Danny Ildefonso). Anthony can force Manuel to come all the way out the three point lane, but Alaska could simply switch Abueva on him and that wouldn't play to Meralco's strengths. We'd love for Reynel Hugnatan and Manuel to go at it, because they're basically the same type of player (hard working, high IQ under sized homegrown power forwards), but being younger and stronger, Manuel's going to kill the Negros Swiss Army Knife.

C Eric Menk/ Sonny Thoss vs Cliff Hodge/ James Sena
There was a time in the league wherein Thoss was considered the very best at the center position. Nowadays, we're not so sure if he's even in the Top 3 discussion. If only Thoss would break out of his continued slump, then we wouldn't even be having this lengthy discussion. He'd be the biggest thorn on the Meralco side, with that team not offering any resistance at all. Menk is solid and is a hard worker, but single coverage is enough to limit him. Thoss? You have to double him when he's at his best. On the flip side, Hodge does his best work around the rim looking for the finish, but not when he's outside (which he has come to realize at last). Rebounding will be a key in this KO game, and Hodge is just a monster on the boards.

Key to the game: Defense, and which team has the Man to rise above it all. 
Prediction: Abueva is the motor that drives the Aces even when the stats are not always there. Unfortunately, the Bolts have two energy guys who can combat Abueva on the floor. Don't be surprised if the Bolts steal this one from the Aces.