PBA Semifinals Predictions: San Miguel Beer vs Talk'n'Text

The wild, wild west
(Photo courtesy of Sports5)

It's funny how the last four teams and how they are paired in the PBA Philippine Cup Semifinals can be compared to that of the NBA's two conferences. The Eastern Conference is known for its slow, low-scoring and almost ugly grind-it-out basketball while the Western Conference is appreciated more for its gun-slinging, fast-paced action.

You could say that the "uglier, NBA Eastern Conference-style" basketball will be played by the other PBA Philippine Cup pair: Rain or Shine versus Alaska, while the "prettier, NBA Western Conference style" will be captured in the Best-of-Seven series that we are about to tackle, that of San Miguel Beer versus Talk'n'Text.

PG Alex Cabagnot/ Chris Ross vs Jayson Castro/ Ryan Reyes/ Jimmy Alapag 
Nice to have you back on the team Mr. Cabagnot, now let's see you try to exorcise your hero ball demons and try to lead the Beermen into the PBA Finals without disrupting team chemistry both on and off the court. While Sol Mercado would've been a much better match-up against the power point men of the Texters, Cabagnot theoretically will be able to cancel out his counterparts in terms of point production. For every bucket Castro scores on Cabagnot (which he will), Cabagnot can return the favor ten-fold owing to his steady outside sniping and one-on-one ball-handling skills. Ross is going to be his usual, hard-working defensive self but will be overmatched in this series owing to his "average" frame. Ross won't be a threat offensively, which is not something you'd want versus the Texters' guards (you'd want to make them work on both ends as much as possible). We'd love to say that Jeric Fortuna would be a big help for the Beermen's cause, but then you'll have to realize that the Texters' THIRD string point guard nowadays is a guy named JIMMY ALAPAG.

SG Chris Lutz/ Ronald Tubid vs Larry Fonacier/ Kevin Alas
Lutz has been great so far at being a passable PBA player: he didn't exactly live up to all the Gilas hype, but he's not too shabby when healthy either. The thing with Lutz is, the Beermen will need him to play defense (as well as Tubid) versus the Texters' hot shot rookie Alas who is instant offense whenever called upon.  Fonacier has been a non-factor the whole conference (and the one before that, and the one before that, and...)  and we just don't see him making much of a difference in this series considering the match-ups. Of the guards from both line-ups, this series is for Lutz' to take much like the first and only encounter the two teams had in the Elimination round.

SF Marcio Lassiter vs Matt Ganuelas Rosser
Arguably the most temperamental player on a rather placid Beermen roster, Lassiter needs to continue with his excellent play alongside buddy Lutz if they are to keep the Texters' strong wing rotation at bay. It's going to be a tough task for Lassiter, considering he'll have to stick to Rosser who is proving to be a lot stronger in the paint when getting rebounds than what his then skinny frame would suggest (those Gabe Norwood comparisons sound like a thing of the past now right? With some folks even suggesting, nay, believing that MGR is a far more superior player than the PBA veteran). Somehow, we see Santos checking MGR if things get out of hand at times, but that will force Beermen head coach Leo Austria to play one of his traditional bench bigs (Doug Kramer, Justin Chua, Rico Maierhofer) to play at the four and get eaten alive by...

PF Arwind Santos vs Ranidel de Ocampo/ Kelly Williams/ Danny Seigle
These three gentlemen. All standing 6"5 and up, all equipped with a well rounded game with the "weakest" link in terms of skillset actually being a legitimate PBA MVP (Williams). Santos has been super this conference for the Beermen-- buying into the team concept and sacrificing a lot of his trigger happy, flat footed three point shooting ways and operating more inside as his 16 ppg and 9 rpg stats would suggest. The challenge here now is if Santos can keep himself out of foul trouble and be smart enough to keep RDO, Williams and or Seigle from breaking games wide open with their inside-outside games. If he can somehow pull it off, then we'll give him a free pass for his "Bagyo" single and whatever comes next.

C Junemar Fajardo vs Harvey Carey/ Jay Washington
Carey is blue collar as hell while Washington is back to playing half of what he's been able to do... but a savvy, skilled 6"10 who doesn't mind contact is just too tall an order to overcome in a best of seven series. The Texters can play this rope-a-dope style and have Fajardo bust his ass night in and night out while zeroing in on the rest, but somehow we feel that it will be a "last resort" for Coach Jong and he'll just keep Fajardo on a one-on-one basis until the crucial moments. If Washington can somehow turn back the clock and play more outside, he'll force Fajardo out of the Cebuano's comfort zone and give full control to the Texters. That being said, a pairing of any of JWash, RDO, Seigle and Williams could be huge for the Texters as it will force the Beermen to play more to their liking.

How will Beermen head coach Leo Austria out-coach future PBA Hall of Famer Jong Uichico? Is Cabagnot ready to make the #sacrifice and not try to do too much this time around? When will Jimmy Alapag be "dusted off" to bury his customary long ball threes?

Key to the series: Cabagnot and Santos being friends again, Fajardo's foul count in games and Lutssiter playing like they should for the Beermen. For the Texters, it's going to be their barrage of wingmen who can take them to the PBA Finals. 
Prediction:This is going to be tough, but somehow we feel that trading for Cabagnot will prove to be a huge mistake for the Beermen specially against a well-disciplined and cohesive team like the Texters.