PBA Semifinals Predictions: Rain or Shine vs Alaska

98-95.

Matira matibay basketball
(Photo courtesy of Sports5)

That's how close the initial and only meeting between PBA Philippine Cup Semifinalists, the Rain or Shine Elastopainters and the Alaska Aces, was which basically decided which team will get a bye to the Semis and which will fall into the Knockout Phase.

After taking care of business against the hapless NLEX Road Warriors and the overwhelmed Meralco Bolts, the Aces are looking to continue building on their success with head coach Alex Compton. It seems like all the patience and trust is finally paying off for the once conservative franchise, with 3rd year pro Calvin Abueva putting up career numbers while also toning down all the crazy antics and flopping. It wouldn't be that much of a stretch to conclude that Abueva's increase in minutes is probably a product of his "good behavior" on the floor.

On the other side, the Elastopainters are off to prove two things: 1) they can finally win the Philippine Cup (All Filipino title) that has seemingly eluded head coach Yeng Guiao and 2) that the Gilas-topainters foursome of Beau Belga, Paul Lee, Gabe Norwood and Jeffrei Chan have all reached that legitimate "higher level" in terms of basketball skill and IQ.

So here we are, in a seven-game series featuring the league's most credible "independent" teams.

Matira matibay.

Uyloan needs to step up
(Photo courtesy of Sports5)

PG Paul Lee/ TY Tang/ Jonathan Uyloan vs JVee Casio/ Chris Banchero
If there ever were a time for Lee to prove himself of Guiao's trust and make up for that pre-season free agency drama of his, now would be it. One look at the competition and it's easy to say that Lee should be posting double digit points the entire series while making his defenders look silly trying. Casio, the Aces' leader, will have to work hard to stay on the floor. So that will force the hand of Coach Compton to put Ping Exciminiano or Chris Banchero to try and keep Lee under control. Fantasy wise, you'd want Abueva to guard Lee, but Lee has a knack for drawing fouls while Abueva, giving them. Tang and Uyloan are runts, one plays stingy body-to-body defense while the other took 1/8 threes in the first RoS-AA encounter. How about Hontiveros, a crafty veteran and established defender, switching on Lee then?

SG Jeffrei Chan/ Ryan Arana vs Cyrus Baguio/ Dondon Hontiveros
Chan has been less than stellar this conference-- while the numbers are there, his impact in games are hardly ever felt any more as compared to his booming triples from the last two years. Is he tired or are teams just able to scout him a lot better these days? Hontiveros enjoyed a vintage performance to knockout the Bolts, and he's always a threat when left open on the floor so RoS needs to keep an eye out on him. Arana and Baguio will probably battle to a draw, with both being shifty offensive scorers. This is the series wherein Jericho Cruz, RoS' steal of a rook, will be missed because whenever Chan is off, he can pick up the tempo scoring-wise. Plus, he's a lot bigger than all four guards in this conversation.

SF Gabe Norwood vs Calvin Abueva
If the Elastopainters are to survive this duel with the Aces in a seven game series, then Norwood needs to buckle down to work and take responsibility for keeping Abueva from being Beastly. The FIBA-certified other worldly defender has been flying under the radar thus far on both ends of the court but this is where he'll be needed the most by his team. Jireh Ibanes has the athleticism to stay in front of Abueva, but there's just a beastly strength to the Aces' forward that puts him above any and all local players. This is going to take a team effort, if only to keep Abueva off the boards-- an area in which the Elastopainters are not particularly known for.

PF Beau Belga vs Vic Manuel

Manuel vs Belga
(Photo courtesy of Eyeshield21)

Kurita vs Ghao. The natural strong big man versus the athletic, hard working freak of nature. While we're frothing at the mouth at the very thought of these two studs going at it in the paint, don't forget that Belga's strengths lie in his being a rather horizontally-enabled face-up forward while Manuel is the more traditional, back-to-the-basket big. Still, when the going gets tough like it did in the first match-up, Belga showed why he was brought into the Gilas roster-- imposing his size and strength almost at will (he drove to the basket twice, we think, to help seal the game) while also hauling down double digit rebounds (which doesn't really happen a lot with Belga). Manuel will have to use his craftiness on this one, since he's not exactly going to be able to just run right through Belga any time soon. Since Belga is not a threat to block shots or gobble up rebounds, Manuel needs to draw him out to bring the RoS big man away the driving lanes to free up space for Abueva et. al.

C Raymond Almazan/ JR Quinahan vs Sonny Thoss/ Eric Menk
While Belga and Lee took over for the Elastopainters' side in their first encounter with the Aces, it was Abueva and a suddenly resurgent Menk who picked up the slack for the red and white. Reed thin Almazan won't be able to stop Menk in the paint, so Quinahan will have to do a better job in this series. Problem here is if and when Thoss finally gets his groove back, then the Aces will be able to impose their might in the block given the fact that the Elastopainters' frontline is depleted at the moment (Jervy Cruz is nursing an injury while gone are inside operators Ronnie Matias and Larry Rodriguez).

In a way, you could say that this series is going to be about the Elastopainter's offense versus the Aces' defense. While it's always easy to proclaim that "defense wins championships," you'll have to score the basketball on the opposite end just as well specially against a team like the Elastopainters who win games not by making stops, but by making runs-- so holding them down for a full 48 minutes is definitely a lot easier said than done.

But, if the Aces can maximize the long stretches wherein the Elastopainters are unable to score or convert (usually when the second unit comes in and guys are uneasy, unable to identify who is supposed to take over a.k.a. The Jonathan Uyloan Time), then they'll be in a very good position to advance to the PBA Finals.

Expect this series to be very entertaining and physical, with multiple shoves and stare downs exchanged by the time we get to Game 3 (money is on guys like Abueva, Belga and Arana to start something).

Key to the series: Inside scoring for Aces, Outside shooting for Elastopainters
Prediction: Too close to call it, but we're going to give the Elastopainters the slight nod owing to their core's Gilas experience.