PBACC The Finals: Rain or Shine vs Talk'n'Text

The Blur vs Angas ng Tondo
(Photo credits to the owner)

It was but only a matter of time before the Rain or Shine Elastopainters and Talk'n'Text Tropang Texters met anew in a stage as big as the PBA Commissioner's Cup Finals.

And we are not saying that simply because they finished one (RoS) and two (TNT) at the end of the conference's Elimination round. No, we are saying that because of the simple fact that both teams feature the most number of players that were loaned to the Gilas Pilipinas basketball program: Ranidel de Ocampo, Jayson Castro, Larry Fonacier, now team manager Jimmy Alapag and (at one point) Kelly Williams for TNT and Paul Lee, Gabe Norwood, Jeffrei Chan and Beau Belga for RoS.

Which basically means that we will get to see how far the above-mentioned players have come, thanks to the extended, rigorous and taxing international training and exposure that they have all enjoyed. Though TNT enjoys a slight advantage of course, since their brain thrust (coaching staff, managers, scouts, etc.) ARE Gilas Pilipinas.

And though we are proud RoS fans, we will try our very best to breakdown the series and come up with a logical and reasonable fearless forecast.

Let's go:


PG Jonathan Uyloan/ Chris Tiu/ TY Tang vs Jayson Castro/ Ryan Reyes/ Rob Labagala
How God-like was Castro in that series against Purefoods? People have been clamoring that Mark Barocca, being an awesome two-way talent, be let in the "Best PG today" conversation but then Castro made sure to close that whole "door" down, bolt it, and bury the God damn house underground. That's how good Castro was. There's just no one on RoS' point guard rotation that could keep in step or strength with him, and it will show in this series. Tiu, Tang and even Uyloan can hold their own versus a more methodical player like Reyes, but Castro? Expect a defensive switch (more on this later).
Adv. TNT but not by much as you think

SG Paul Lee/ Jeffrei Chan/ Ryan Arana/ Jeric Teng vs Larry Fonacier/ Kevin Alas/ Willie Miller
As long as we've been fans of RoS, we cannot recall a single conference wherein Lee was this consistently good (18 points, 7 rebounds a night). Was it the Gilas experience that changed him? Or maybe the switch to the 2-spot and relieved of the burden of calling plays for the other guys? He's going to be tested in this one, as the vastly under-rated defender Larry Fonacier is surely going to give Lee some trouble out in the perimeter. The thing we're worried most, as RoS fans, is that kid who we traded away-- Kevin Alas. He has the size, speed and skillset to combat and engage Polee in a shootout which would negate RoS' biggest advantage on the floor. Mag score nga si Polee ng 30, kas o si Alas naman maglaglag off the bench ng mga 12-15. E di wala din. Injured pa ba si Jeff? Kaso kahit healthy, kinakain siya ni Fonacier.
Adv. RoS

SF Gabe Norwood/ Jericho Cruz/ Jireh Ibanes vs Matt Ganuelas Rosser/ Aron Aban
We're sorry Mr. Rosser for calling you a Gabe Norwood clone with hair. No, you are a better player at this age than Norwood was coming into the PBA. We see Norwood being sent to guard Castro, the same way Rosser will be asked to keep an eye out on Polee. Problem is, Norwood's offense is spotty at best while MGR can still drop buckets despite playing solid defense on the other end. Since those two will not really be guarding each other, expect whoever plays the SF for RoS to go off. And that's where Jericho Cruz will be able to shine the brightest.
Adv. Draw

RakEnRol vs Ang Dalubhasa
(Photo credits to the owner)

PF Beau Belga/  Raymond Almazan/ Jervy Cruz vs Ranidel de Ocampo/ Kelly Williams/ Danny Seigle/ Elmer Espiritu
To win the the title, this position will be the most vital. We all know that in the 2013 Philippine Cup wherein TNT swept RoS 4-0, RdO was adjudged Finals MVP simply because he was too good out there. The man we have dubbed ANG DALUBHASA was basically having his way against beefy enforcer Belga, smaller Cruz and slower Quinahan. Well, now, RoS has a young kid named Almazan to offer-- and this should be a nice match-up. While RdO will own the paint versus Almazan given his experience and footwork, Almazan knows how to guard and be effective against monster low post players (he's been guarding Nigerian/African/ whatever-an imports since college!) while also being a threat himself outside which should force RdO to step outside. Now we'll get to see if Belga was able to learn something from Gilas, or if RdO's simply going to dominate again. OR, if this series will be Almazan's coming out party to remain relevant with his 2013 PBA Draft buddies Greg Slaughter and Ian Sangalang.
Adv. TNT

C Wayne Chism/ JayR Quinahan vs Ivan Johnson/ Jay Washington/ Rob Reyes/ Harvey Carey
We were shocked with how Purefoods exposed Johnson in their semis match-up, something that RoS has probably viewed and studied by now. We thought Johnson, given his size, strength and shooting would go crazy against Purefoods. Well, no. Force him out to the 3 point line and close in on him and he's basically useless because of his lack of an explosive first step/ dribble option. He is a set shooter, a mighty good one, so you just need someone to be in his face all the time. Belga and Quinahan have the body to push him out of the paint, so that's the plan for RoS. With Chism, he's vastly skilled and very efficient (the man runs a basketball camp!). While he isn't strong or muscular like Johnson, he can take it from the outside or inside or wherever. He can make plays and passes, and is just an all-around threat on the floor. Key here is to have maybe Washington and Williams slide over and guard him, but that would mess up TNT's rotation (as Johnson needs to be on the floor, then there's Williams/ Washington guarding Chism, which means you to sit either RdO or MGR which isn't to TNT's advantage in this series).
Adv. RoS

So. A draw.

That's how close and evenly matched-up we see the two teams. For one, because Jimmy Alapag is no longer there. And Kelly Williams and Jay Washington have both regressed to the point that they're basically quicker, taller versions of Harvey Carey. And the fact that RoS has not only developed its core Gilas guys (Norwood, Lee, Chan, Belga) but also have three up-and-comers in Almazan, Cruz and the ballsy Uyloan.

TNT needs to win this series if only to validate the Gilas program which they run, plus the fact that they have Gilas 3.0 head coach Tab Baldwin acting as consultant. You can't argue that, should they lose, it's because Baldwin and Uichico didn't enjoy working with the league's best players (or in this series, the better players, because they are). So they NEED to win this more than RoS does.

For RoS, this is a continuation of their successful basketball program under head coach Yeng Guiao. To build a team the "right" (read: cheap) way through draft picks and some low-key trades here and there while giving every one the minutes to help build their confidence (thanks to a "shoot when you're open or get your ass chewed out by YG" philosophy). If they win, it will be their 2nd championship in 5 PBA Finals trips during the Guiao era. If they lose, then they can explore adding some more pieces which in no way weakens the program.

Kung lagi silang 3rd place gaya ng San Miguel/ Santa Lucia that one year 1996 ata yun, ayun ang may problema. Pero kung lagi kang Finals? Konting ayos na lang yan, nothing drastic.

Back to the chess match.

We see it going this way:

Norwood vs Castro, Lee vs MGR, Cruz vs Alas, Almazan vs RdO, Chism vs Johnson.

And you know what, RoS actually has a slight advantage there because Lee can guard MGR, Alas and Castro, while Alas will be in a bad spot vs the stronger Cruz and even Lee should they rotate. If you bring in a Washington and move RdO down to 3 and MGR to 2, they'll have all sorts of spacing problems with Washington and RdO both being good operators at the same high and low post spots (think Arwind Santos, Jay Washington redundancy). It would also force MGR to play the 2 and camp outside, which takes away from his weakside cutting and rebounding.

RoS?

Norwood can guard RdO if they're outside. Almazan can guard Johnson and RdO, even MGR.

X factor: MGR and Alas combo for TNT, Almazan and Jericho  Cruz for RoS. And Ibanes' D on Castro.

Key match-up: Almazan vs RdO
You say it's going to be Belga vs RdO, but the truth of it all, is that Almazan is the better player right now between him and his beefy bulky mentor.

This series will not be won with defense.

This series will be won by the team whose star wills them to the championship.

But the thing is, we see Castro and RdO being taken out of the equation somehow by RoS' defense. Which will force them to rely on Johnson and rookies Alas and MGR to win. There's always a pecking order of go-to-guys, specially if you've been following Coach Uichico's coaching career (he never really makes use of that "magic bunot" thing unless there's a legit 6th man star on the roster).

While Lee will definitely be shut down at some point, the way RoS' offense works, is, well, every one can shoot, any one can star, and any one can win games.

Unless of course, as we mentioned, Castro goes HAM on us all and drops 7/11 from deep every night.

Fearless forecast: RoS in 6.

Agree? Disagree? Let us know @kilikilishot on Twitter!