PBAPC SF: 1 Alaska vs 5 GlobalPort

The Muscle Man
(Photo credit to PBA.Inquirer.net)

Contrary to popular belief, this is about as evenly matched on paper as you could get as far as a semifinals pairing is concerned.

Sure, the Alaska Aces have been playing great since Alex Compton took over and specially this conference now that Calvin Abueva and Vic Manuel have taken starring roles within their "we not me" system, but that does not necessarily mean that they will just walk through the GlobalPort Batang Pier squad in a seven-game series. For one, the Batang Pier have the same nice mix of hungry youth and veteran savvy as the Aces.

On one side, the Aces’ strength lies in their deep guard rotation wherein everyone is a threat to score 20 a game be it JVee Casio, Cyrus Baguio and or Dondon Hontiveros. They also have solid back-ups in Chris Banchero, RJ Jazul and Ping Exciminiano, with Abueva also able to help in the ball-handling department. For the Batang Pier, while Stanley Pringle and Terrence Romeo are the stars, it is their frontline which got them this far: Jay Washington, Doug Kramer, Dorian Pena, Billy Mamaril and Rico Maierhofer. That’s a first-class collection of veteran bigs if we say so ourselves, with the Aces having only Manuel, an aging Sonny Thoss, what remains of Eric Menk, Noy Baclao and Samigue Eman.

Frankly speaking, Manuel’s post-up offense will play right into the hands (and strengths) of Kramer, Mamaril and Pena. Menk will have his share of the limelight, but nothing the Batang Pier’s bigs can’t handle really.  Maierhofer is seasoned enough to know how Baclao operates so they should cancel each other out. Thoss holds the key to the paint here, if he is able to turn the clock back a bit or simply move his feet, then the Aces will have two low-to-high post threats which could post problems for a slower Batang Pier side (can’t risk putting Washington on Manuel/ Thoss since he’s not built for the ground and pound game).

Now let’s go back to the stars.

Pringle will light up Casio and it is going to get ugly quick. Romeo will have problems with Hontiveros’ craftiness, Exciminiano’s hustle (his old FEU dance partner) and maybe even Abueva. Ah, Abueva. Should Casio have trouble with Pringle (which we expect him to), we see Abueva helping out in guarding either of the Batang Pier’s star duo. Honestly, Abueva is going to be a force in this match-up, since he is quick enough to steal rebounds from Batang Pier’s hulking yet slow bigs and quicker than anyone that they have to offer really. Keith Jensen? Anthony Semerad? Dust off Marvin Hayes perhaps? Don’t be surprised if Abueva gets in a scuffle at some point in this series.

All things considered, this is going to be a true test to Pringle and Romeo. If they can carry the Batang Pier in a grind-it-out, helter-skelter series versus a relentless Aces team that is a threat to bust out full court presses when you least expect it. Stamina will be a factor here, and Batang Pier just gutted out a win versus Ginebra today and Barako Bull the other night while the Aces are fresh.

Might be a bit rusty at the start, but fresh.

And Coach Alex Compton's X's and O's > Pido Jarencio's "THIS IS YOU! (hanggang dyan na lang inggles ko)" style

PG Casio/ Banchero/ Exciminiano vs Pringle
This is going to be tough on the Aces since Pringle has kicked it up a notch this season, looking just as good (if not better) than Talk'n'Text's unstoppable Jayson Castro. We expect the Aces to keep giving Pringle different looks to throw him off, with the bulk of the responsibility going to Pringle's ABL rival Banchero and Exciminiano.
Adv. Global Port

SG Baguio/ Hontiveros vs Romeo/ Yeo
As old as Baguio and Hontiveros are, both still have a few tricks up their sleeves. Baguio is an under-rated, quick handed and footed defender while Hontiveros has always been lockdown his entire career (although now that he's getting up there in age, when he locks in on defense, it always comes at the expense of his offense). On the flip side, Romeo is going to try and dance around the two, same with Yeo, though we don't really see them stopping anyone. So it's going to be a firefight at this position.
Adv. Tied

SF Dela Cruz/ Abueva vs Jensen
Once Coach Alex gets rid of TDLC, Abueva is going to kill 'em all.
Adv. Alaska

PF Manuel vs Washington/ Kramer
Manuel vs Washington in the paint is going to be murder. But versus Kramer, who is an established low post defender, he might have some trouble posting up. If he tries to dribble a bit to get some momentium facing up, he'll risk getting tagged by Pringle or Romeo for the easy weakside steal. Still, numbers alone suggest that Manuel will deliver for the Aces come crunch time.
Adv. Alaska

C Thoss vs Mamaril/ Pena
This wouldn't have been close maybe 2 or 3 years ago. Unfortunately, Thoss has only shown flashes of his old self while Mamaril and Pena continue to grind it out and use their bodies and brains to play the center position. Should be a nice throwback match-up in the paint.
Adv. Tied

X-Factors: Ping Exciminiano (AA), Keith Jensen (GP) 

Prediction: Aces to advance