PBAPC SF: 2 San Miguel vs 3 Rain or Shine

On the path to greatness
(Photo credit to PBA.Inquirer.net)

This semifinals encounter my friends, will not be for the weak of heart. While the other series between the Alaska Aces and GlobalPort Batang Pier will probably be high octane and flashy, this one will be for the grown-ups. Think of that series as John Cena, and this one as Brock Lesnar. Spice Girls and Mocha Girls. Ana Roces and Rosanna Roces.

You get the picture right?

Okay, from our perspective the only way for RoS to win versus SMB is for a repeat of their gameplan in the Elimination round which was to have their bigs play outside, their smalls, inside. It didn't matter to RoS head coach Yeng Guiao if Beau Belga, Raymond Almazan and JayR Quinahan were missing from deep. All that matters was that Junemar Fajardo kept over extending himself all the way to the outside leaving Arwind Santos all by his lonesome in protecting the paint versus RoS' big-bodied guards Jericho Cruz and Maverick Ahanmisi.


On defense, they basically dared everyone else to beat them NOT named Fajardo (which is opposite of what the Aces' did in their encounter with SMB).

Now there lies the problem.

For one game, sure, it worked. But in a seven game series where you can always go back to the drawing board after a defeat, the trick gets unraveled quickly. RoS' bigs keep shooting from outside? Rotate Santos to them and have Fajardo sit back. RoS' guards keep attacking SMB's smaller starters? Bring in Brian Heruela, Ryan Arana and even David Semerad. Fight fire with fire? Yancy de Ocampo INVENTED the "3 point shooting center with a post up game" calling card in the PBA for crying out loud.

To win, SMB only needs to manager their starters' minutes and keep them off foul trouble (Alex Cabagnot, Marcio Lassiter, Ronald Tubid, Santos and Fajardo). Despite having a much-improved bench this season, SMB still has some trouble in maintaining that level of consistency from their starters to their reserves (simply because their starters, save for an aging Tubid, are legit PBA All Stars). So that is where RoS can attack SMB and beat them. By breaking up the starting unit and have SMB figure out how to play some of their 1st team with their 2nd team cohesively.

Honestly, it is going to be a tall order for RoS as none of their guys merit a double team. SMB can just home in on their respective assignments, which takes out RoS' strength which is ball movement.

And this is why they will need Paul Lee.

Though he's still reportedly at around 70%, he can be that added threat on the floor that keeps defenders on their toes. You'd want Cruz to be able to do that (he's been pretty successful thus far), but SMB head coach Leo Austria probably has him scouted already at this point (being his former college coach and all).

PG Cabagnot/ Ross vs Ahanmisi/ Tiu
Cabagnot has been lighting it up as of late to the tune of somewhere around a 16-5-5 statline, so this is going to be an acid test for Tiu should he be tasked to start. Ahanmisi might find some degree of success here, but both RoS guys will need to consistently deliver if only to negate what Cabagnot brings to the table.
Adv. SMB

SG Lassiter vs Chan/ Cruz
Since Lutz has been AWOL, this one is going to be all Lassiter. His shooting has been great as of late, and Chan will be in a lot of trouble should the Gilas I standout focus on playing tough D. Cruz is going to be the key here if he can keep attacking Lassiter or anyone asked to guard him, although we expect to see him having trouble versus Lassiter, Arana, Tubid and even Heruela.
Adv. Tied

SF Tubid/ Arana vs Norwood/ Ibanes
Interesting match-up of Grade A stoppers right here. Arguably the best you can find in the whole PBA today. They probably won't be assigned versus one another for so long, and that they'll be used for cross matches. Advantage goes to SMB a bit because Arana can light up a scoreboard. Tied, because RoS has Trollano and Nimes waiting.
Adv. Tied

PF Santos/ Espinas vs Belga/ Ponferada
Can Belga keep in step with Santos? Can he keep his cool and focus at the task at hand? Santos has been pulling a lot of antics lately, from staredowns to near push-ups - KG style. So this will be an explosive match-up from the get-go. Santos needs to make his 3 balls to get Belga out of the paint and prevent him from helping. Belga needs to attack inside and use his heft which he hardly ever does.
Adv. SMB

C Fajardo/ de Ocampo vs Almazan/ Quinahan
Almazan has improved, but a 2x MVP is a 2x MVP for a reason. For RoS to win, they need to force JMF way out (like they did in the elimination round) and keep shooting 3s, hit or miss. Unfortunately, it seems that de Ocampo feels like playing again. Who is he? Well, when focused, he's a taller version of his younger brother Ranidel. With a more lethal jumper even.
Adv. SMB

X-Factors: de Ocampo (SMB), Lee (RoS)

Prediction: SMB